Canadian wheat and canola production in 2025/26 (Aug/Jul) surpassed early expectations to hit new record highs, according to updated survey-based estimates from Statistics Canada released Dec. 4.
Statistics Canada will release its first survey-based production estimates for the 2025/26 crop year on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
Canadian farmers made heavy deliveries of grains and oilseeds off the combine and into the commercial pipeline this September, with total deliveries of the major crops up 13.3 per cent from the same month the previous year, reported Statistics Canada.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made several upward adjustments to its supply and demand estimates, after including the data from the Statistics Canada production update earlier this month.
Expect canola futures to fall back in the coming months, said analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital in Winnipeg. Klassen pointed to the Statistics Canada production update and China as two reasons for the coming declines.