Wheat stocks in major exporting nations are not considered burdensome and are rather seen to have become relatively tight.

Markets continue to push lower

Risk premiums created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine have evaporated

Market sentiment remains bearish for most agricultural commodities, including the major crops grown in Western Canada. Prices have been declining in most markets since the recent highs were set at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Markets have gradually adjusted to the news coming from the conflict and has effectively removed […] Read more

When commercial and managed-money positions are at an extreme low or high, that represents a turning signal for the market.

Understanding the Commitments of Traders report

The U.S. report, released every Friday, is an important indicator of cattle market movement

Who is long? Who is short? How much of each? This is the most important market information when studying the futures markets. The Commitments of Traders (CoT) report is released every Friday afternoon by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the trading positions of market participants as of Tuesday’s close. Whether you […] Read more


The Index of Wheat on The Screen.

What moves grain futures and cash markets?

Fundamentals and futures are the underlying structure. Then add on speculators


In the next few columns, I’ll review what makes futures and cash grain markets move. I’ll touch on fundamentals, futures markets, technical and speculation. Then I’ll throw in some tariff and trade issues and add a little political mayhem, in hopes of trying to make sense of how markets act and react. Market action starts […] Read more

cattle in a feedlot

Other indicators affecting cattle market decisions

Risk Management Part 4: Who’s using the futures market and what are their intentions?

In my previous article, I discussed four possible market environments and the possible marketing or hedging strategies for each environment. Cow-calf producers will know if the basis is weak or strong based on longer-term historical data. The price range of the futures market over the past two years will provide a good idea if the futures market is in […] Read more


The difference between the cash market and the futures market is called the “basis,” and it can send an important message about when to sell or not sell.

More on feeder cattle risk management

Market Update: Looking a little deeper into messages from the market

In the winter of 2017 I wrote a series of articles about price risk management for feeder cattle. I discussed hedging feeder cattle on the CME feeder cattle futures and also conducted a risk analysis on the basis for feeder cattle prices in Manitoba. Read more: Understanding feeder cattle risk: Pt. 1 Read more: Understanding feeder cattle […] Read more



Soft white spring wheat.

A look back at pricing your wheat

Marketing grain is always a risky business. Here’s what could have happened

Spring seeding and combining went better than expected for the most part across the Prairies and the crops are off to a decent start. Excess rains in some regions and dryness in others has caused some concerns but overall the crop is in and growing and looking good. Weather forecasters are watching the current La […] Read more

What is the cattle futures market saying?

What is the cattle futures market saying?

The combination of cash and futures market numbers will point the way

I’ve received numerous calls over the past month from cow-calf producers and backgrounding operators in regards to a marketing strategy for their individual operation. In four previous articles I’ve discussed the feeder cattle futures market and the historical relationship between the cash and futures market. I analyzed basis levels and discussed using the basis and futures for […] Read more


May 2017 canola futures chart.

A price chart is worth a thousand words

What can we learn from a look back at this May 2017 canola futures chart?

I was looking at this May 2017 canola futures charts the other day to remind myself just how much we can learn from them. It is a lot easier to figure out the trends and patterns on a chart after they’ve happened than it is to decipher what will happen while it is happening. Cyclical […] Read more

Concept of making money agriculture

Locking your crop prices in early

Some farmers are afraid to take on the risks of pricing too early in the growing season

In my experience, most farmers will not price grains six months prior to seeding because it seems too risky — they’re concerned about delivery risk. How can you reduce or eliminate delivery risk so that, if prices are profitable early in the year, you’re not afraid to price some or most of your crop and […] Read more