Corrected, May 25 — MarketsFarm — Canadian canola ending stocks for both the current marketing year and the upcoming 2020-21 season will be tighter than earlier forecasts, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released Friday.
The latest data take into account acreage estimates released by Statistics Canada earlier in the month.
Canola ending stocks for 2020-21 are now forecast at 2.3 million tonnes, which would be down by 400,000 tonnes from the April forecast and the tightest carryout in four years.
Ending stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, down by 600,000 tonnes from an earlier estimate, as AAFC raised both its export and domestic usage forecasts.
Total wheat ending stocks are forecast at 6.8 million tonnes for 2020-21. That compares with the March estimate of 6.9 million and the 5.9 million-tonne projection for the current marketing year.
From a pricing standpoint, “abundant supplies and factors related to COVID-19 are expected to pressure world grain prices but prices in Canada will continue to be supported by the low value of the Canadian dollar,” AAFC said.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
Correction, May 25, 2019 — A previous version of this article reported StatsCan had forecast canola ending stocks for 2019-20 at 2.7 million tonnes, down 500,000 from an earlier estimate.