The Index of Wheat on The Screen.

What moves grain futures and cash markets?

Fundamentals and futures are the underlying structure. Then add on speculators


In the next few columns, I’ll review what makes futures and cash grain markets move. I’ll touch on fundamentals, futures markets, technical and speculation. Then I’ll throw in some tariff and trade issues and add a little political mayhem, in hopes of trying to make sense of how markets act and react. Market action starts […] Read more

Should you sell your grain now, or wait? Market dynamics can change quickly.

Grain markets in the new year

A post-harvest review of market movements, and pre-pricing your 2019 crop

Some key changes pre-Christmas changed the tone of the grain markets. Dry weather in India started to impact pulse markets, pushing Canadian pulse values higher on concerns that India’s crop will not be sufficient to meet their needs. Buyers are trying to secure product before the situation gets worse and prices run even higher. Australia’s […] Read more


Time to buy cattle price insurance

Time to buy cattle price insurance

Market Update: Cow-calf producers should sell their feeders with the lofty futures and historically strong basis

Alberta packers were buying fed cattle in the range of $151 to $153 on a live basis in mid-October, up approximately $10 from a month earlier. While Alberta prices have been percolating higher, fed cattle values in Kansas have hovered around US$111 on a live basis over the past four weeks. Market-ready supplies of fed […] Read more

Commodity markets have been about as predictable as the weather as of late.

Weather, trade and our grain markets

Local and global events are keeping markets moving. Keep your eyes on your own work

As the calendar turned to April most of the Prairies looked like they were back in January with the snow cover and cold. Due to the La Niña weather event persisting for longer than some had predicted, portions of the Midwest and Southern U.S. remained extremely dry, while the Northern States, like the Prairies were […] Read more


Are your grain deliveries protected?

Are your grain deliveries protected?

Know the full CGC rules to make sure your payment is protected when you make a sale

Not getting paid for the grain you deliver. It doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it’s a tough financial blow. Know the rules so you can protect yourself. The law in this area is in the hands of the Canada Grains Commission. Everything you read here in italics comes from the CGC website. Let’s […] Read more

May feeder cattle minus October live cattle daily chart.

Looking at the feed grain component

Risk Management Part 5: More feeder cattle equals more feedlot placements, equals larger beef production

With this final article for the series on risk management for cow-calf producers, I note the previous columns discussed a specific aspect of the cash and futures market relationships. Producers are aware of when basis and futures levels are favourable and can use this information for buying price insurance or placing hedges on the feeder […] Read more


cattle in a feedlot

Other indicators affecting cattle market decisions

Risk Management Part 4: Who’s using the futures market and what are their intentions?

In my previous article, I discussed four possible market environments and the possible marketing or hedging strategies for each environment. Cow-calf producers will know if the basis is weak or strong based on longer-term historical data. The price range of the futures market over the past two years will provide a good idea if the futures market is in […] Read more

A review of the market fundamentals

Back to basics — the rudiments, the essentials and the nitty gritty details of fundamentals

When talking about markets you always hear the terms technicals and fundamentals. “Technicals” refers primarily to the historical and present day charting information for a commodity. This includes examining all of the formations, trend lines, etc., to determine where futures prices are going. “Fundamentals” encompasses other aspects that can influence markets — such as politics, currencies, […] Read more


Feeder cattle basis analysis

Finishing at least some of your own calves is a diversification measure

In my previous article, I provided a brief overview of last year’s series of articles on price risk management for feeder cattle. In this column I will continue the discussion and also answer some of the main questions producers had last year. Cow-calf producers are becoming more familiar with the basis level for their local […] Read more

The difference between the cash market and the futures market is called the “basis,” and it can send an important message about when to sell or not sell.

More on feeder cattle risk management

Market Update: Looking a little deeper into messages from the market

In the winter of 2017 I wrote a series of articles about price risk management for feeder cattle. I discussed hedging feeder cattle on the CME feeder cattle futures and also conducted a risk analysis on the basis for feeder cattle prices in Manitoba. Read more: Understanding feeder cattle risk: Pt. 1 Read more: Understanding feeder cattle […] Read more