Wittal: Canola premiums may soon retreat

Our online grain markets columnist Brian Wittal welcomes feedback and information on market conditions in your area, such as current offering prices, basis levels, trucking premiums and special crops contracts. Contact Brian today.

March 10 — The stock markets were up nicely today, with the Dow Jones up almost 340 points.

The U.S. dollar was down a third of a cent and the Canadian dollar was up 0.5 cents to close at US77.65 cents.

Crude oil was up to start the day but finished down $1.36 to close at US$45.71 per barrel.

Corn was up nine to 11 cents per bushel, beans were up eight to 19 cents per bushel and wheat was up nine to 11 cents a bushel. Canola was up $1 to $7 per tonne and barley finished unchanged for the day.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand report will come out tomorrow (Wednesday) and there is speculation that bean stocks will be down, which would certainly be supportive to oilseed futures. Corn and wheat aren’t expected to change much at all.

Market sources report that the European Union has lifted its ban on the import of a variety of genetically modified rapeseed produced in Canada.

This may allow Canada to resume canola exports to the EU and that’s good news for potential canola exports going forward. This could help to reduce our total inventory carryout for this year and help to support prices in the long term.

Reports from commercial buyers suggest the tightness in the canola supply line is starting to diminish as deliveries are picking up, no doubt as farmers are taking advantage of recent premiums being offered to sell and move inventory before spring.

This could mean we will start to see a pull-back on the premiums being offered over the next week or two.

The Canadian Wheat Board’s new-crop CWRS pool return outlook (PRO) is at $289 per tonne. Today the Fixed Price Contract (FPC) is at $282.43 per tonne.

For new-crop CPSR, the PRO is $250 per tonne and today the FPC is at $242.79 per tonne.

Deduct your freight and elevation from this price to determine your net in-pocket price. Please contact your local elevator for exact deductions for accurate calculations.

With the FPC values almost equal to the PRO, this may be something to consider if you are able to lock in a profit.

That’s all for today. — Brian

— Brian Wittal has spent over 27 years in the grain industry, including as an elevator manager and producer services representative for Alberta Wheat Pool, a regional sales manager for AgPro Grain and farm business representative for the Canadian Wheat Board, where he helped design some of the new pricing programs. He also operates his own company providing marketing and risk management advice for Prairie grain producers. Brian’s daily commentaries focus on how domestic and world market conditions affect you directly as grain producers.

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Brian Wittal

Brian Wittal has 30 years of grain industry experience and currently offers market planning and marketing advice to farmers through his company Pro Com Marketing Ltd.

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