Winnipeg | CNS Canada – Canadian canola carryout stocks at the end of the current marketing year (2018/19) will be considerably larger than an earlier estimate, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released on Oct. 19, 2018.
Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch forecast canola ending stocks for 2018/19 at 2.500 million tonnes, which would be double the September estimate, but in line with the 2017/18 carryout of 2.391 million tonnes.
Wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 were raised by 600,000 tonnes, to 5.600 million. That compares with the 2017/18 wheat carryout of 6.173 million tonnes.
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The ending stocks adjustments were largely linked to updated production estimates released by Statistics Canada in September.
Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were lowered to 12.545 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 10.345 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year, which ended July 31, were pegged at 13.904 million tonnes.
Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.760 million tonnes, which compares with the September estimate of 1.540 million and the 2017/18 carryout of 1.663 million tonnes.
October estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) and 2017/18 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.
Grains and Oilseeds
—-Production—- —-Exports—-
2018/19 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 2017/18
Oct 19 Sep 18 Oct 19 Sep 18
All Wht 31.010 29.987 29.984 22.600 22.200 21.867
Durum 5.706 5.034 4.962 4.600 4.800 4.387
Barley 8.227 7.992 7.891 2.400 2.400 2.883
Corn 14.461 13.789 14.095 1.800 1.600 1.830
Oats 3.383 3.305 3.733 2.400 2.400 2.412
Canola 20.999 19.162 21.328 11.500 11.000 10.909
Flaxseed 0.511 0.494 0.555 0.400 0.400 0.485
Soybeans 7.515 7.010 7.717 5.700 5.300 4.998
TOTAL 86.471 81.103 85.794 46.953 45.453 45.580
—-Domestic Usage—- —-Ending Stocks—-
2018/19 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 2017/18
Oct 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Sep 18
All Wht 9.073 8.067 8.883 5.600 5.000 6.173
Durum 0.992 0.717 0.934 1.600 1.000 1.477
Barley 6.148 6.023 5.943 1.000 0.900 1.256
Corn 14.278 14.139 14.009 2.200 1.750 2.417
Oats 1.162 1.109 1.258 0.625 0.600 0.784
Canola 9.490 9.403 9.474 2.500 1.250 2.391
Flaxseed 0.124 0.131 0.190 0.125 0.100 0.128
Soybeans 2.416 2.406 2.909 0.450 0.705 0.651
TOTAL 42.968 41.555 43.021 12.540 10.345 13.904
Pulse and Special Crops
——-Production——- ——-Exports——-
2018/19 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 2017/18
Oct 19 Sep 18 Oct 19 Sep 18
Dry peas 3.735 3.635 4.112 2.800 2.900 3.086
Lentils 2.230 2.167 2.559 1.900 1.800 1.540
Dry beans 0.349 0.312 0.322 0.350 0.340 0.351
Chickpeas 0.283 0.264 0.102 0.115 0.135 0.116
Mustard 0.175 0.175 0.122 0.120 0.125 0.112
Canaryseed 0.111 0.111 0.145 0.115 0.105 0.147
Sunflower 0.058 0.058 0.058 0.025 0.025 0.017
TOTAL 6.942 6.723 7.419 5.425 5.432 5.369
—–Domestic Usage—— —–Ending Stocks—–
2018/19 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19 2018/19 2017/18
Oct 19 Sep 18 Oct 19 Sep 18
Dry peas 0.901 0.900 0.688 0.700 0.500 0.650
Lentils 0.492 0.478 0.492 0.750 0.800 0.876
Dry beans 0.024 0.022 0.023 0.090 0.065 0.035
Chick peas 0.062 0.063 0.033 0.115 0.075 0.001
Mustard 0.047 0.047 0.049 0.060 0.055 0.050
Canaryseed 0.006 0.006 0.003 0.005 0.005 0.005
Sunflower 0.053 0.053 0.053 0.040 0.040 0.035
TOTAL 1.585 1.570 1.663 1.760 1.540 1.663
Source: Agriculture and Agri Food Canada.
