Huge increase predicted in canola ending stocks

MarketsFarm — Canadian canola carryout stocks are forecast to rise to a record 5.3 million tonnes by the end of the 2019-20 marketing year, more than doubling the previous five-year average, according to updated estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division.

While the department, in its estimates, expects total canola production to decline to 18.9 million tonnes in 2019-20, from 20.343 million in the current marketing year, it also forecasts a sharp reduction in exports.

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Citing the trade dispute with China, AAFC said there was a “high degree of uncertainty” to the export forecast. Total canola exports for 2019-20 are forecast at only 8.000 million tonnes, which compares with an estimated 9.300 million in the current marketing year and 10.726 million in 2017-18.

Canola ending stocks for 2018-19 are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, which compares with an earlier estimate of 3.5 million. That would mark the new record on its own, and compares with the previous five-year average of 2.303 million tonnes.

Total wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 are also expected to be large, at an estimated 7.1 million tonnes. That compares with an estimated 5.8 million tonnes for 2018-19.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.


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