Although there’s a debate over the size of the South American soybean crop, there’s little doubt that it will be an enormous one, said consultant Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale, Ill.
The USDA is forecasting tighter U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 due to increased exports. The supply/demand balance sheets for soybeans and wheat were unchanged.
A sharp drop in the sunflower seed crop in 2025 combined with the introduction of export duties on oilseeds will lead to a surge in domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans, the volume of which may exceed exports, said an analyst.
As activity at the Chicago Board of Trade shifts into holiday mode through the New Year, independent analyst Terry Reilly pointed to three things to watch over the next few weeks.
Statistics Canada will release its first survey-based production estimates for the 2025/26 crop year on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
Chicago corn and wheat futures rose on Tuesday, lifted by worries about tensions in the Black Sea grain export region as well as cold weather slowing grain movement in the U.S. Midwest, analysts said. Soybeans were lower.
Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade climbed to their highest levels in a year-and-a-half on Nov. 18, as optimism over increasing sales to China provided support. However, more business will be needed to sustain the upward move, with traders uncertain whether the stated targets will be reached.
Regardless of the United States government shutdown ending soon or not, the Department of Agriculture is set to issue its supply and demand report on Nov. 14. The USDA cancelled its October edition of World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates due to the shutdown and pushed back their November report a few days.
With harvest pressure on canola over, the Canadian oilseed could track higher until spring, said David Derwin, commodity futures advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, Man. Although he cautioned there will be some rough patches along the way.
Optimism over thawing trade relations between the United States and China gave soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade a boost during the week ended Oct. 29, with the advances in the soy market spilling into corn and wheat.