As activity at the Chicago Board of Trade shifts into holiday mode through the New Year, independent analyst Terry Reilly pointed to three things to watch over the next few weeks.
Shipments of U.S. crops to China are accelerating after a tense tariff war had stalled trade for months, with at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
Chicago corn and wheat futures rose on Tuesday, lifted by worries about tensions in the Black Sea grain export region as well as cold weather slowing grain movement in the U.S. Midwest, analysts said. Soybeans were lower.
U.S. soybean futures retreated on Monday from a one-week top on a lack of fresh soy sales to top buyer China and lingering doubts over whether the Asian nation will buy 12 million tonnes of the oilseed by the end of 2025
U.S. soybean futures were mixed at Friday’s close at the end of a see-saw week during which Chinese purchases of U.S. supplies pushed prices to a 17-month high before doubts about whether China would sustain such buying punctured the rally.
Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade climbed to their highest levels in a year-and-a-half on Nov. 18, as optimism over increasing sales to China provided support. However, more business will be needed to sustain the upward move, with traders uncertain whether the stated targets will be reached.
China bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, two traders with knowledge of the deals said, its largest purchase since at least January and the most significant since a summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in October.
The United States sold at least 332,000 tonnes of soybeans to China during the government shutdown, with more business to “unknown destinations” also likely headed to the country, according to a cache of daily sales data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 14.
Soybean and corn yields in the United States were revised downward from earlier estimates in updated supply/demand tables from the United States Department of Agriculture released Nov. 14.