Tom Lilja, an analyst from Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., expects corn and soybeans yields to be trimmed ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand estimates release on Jan. 12, 2026.
Some of the world’s largest soybean traders are preparing to break their agreement to curb deforestation of the Amazon rainforest to preserve tax benefits in Brazil’s top farm state, two people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
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Although there’s a debate over the size of the South American soybean crop, there’s little doubt that it will be an enormous one, said consultant Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale, Ill.
Sideways trade is expected to be the norm in the soybean and corn futures markets through the holiday season, as participants continue to get caught up on the data that was delayed during the United States government shutdown.
The USDA is forecasting tighter U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 due to increased exports. The supply/demand balance sheets for soybeans and wheat were unchanged.
U.S. soybean futures fell below $11 a bushel on Monday for the first time since October on uncertainty over whether China will buy as much U.S. supply as Washington expects and as South American crop weather favored large soy harvests that could begin in about a month, analysts said.
A sharp drop in the sunflower seed crop in 2025 combined with the introduction of export duties on oilseeds will lead to a surge in domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans, the volume of which may exceed exports, said an analyst.