In order to get Canadian farmers to plant at least the same amount of canola this spring as they did last spring, they are likely going to need a premium, said Jerry Klassen, analyst with Resilient Capital in Winnipeg.
Strong flaxseed prices should encourage more planted acres to the crop this spring, but any increases in area will also depend on the price relationship canola.
Look for trading of soybeans, corn and wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade remain sideways for the balance of January, perhaps longer, said Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.
There’s a 760,000-tonne difference in the ending stocks for Canada’s 2025/26 canola crop respectively estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture. Aside from that, the canola data from AAFC and the USDA remain quite similar.
Prior to the January supply and demand report being released by the United States Department of Agriculture, its attachés in Argentina and Brazil issued their respective reports on oilseed production for 2025/26.
Stronger than expected yields in the early going saw Malaysia’s 2025/26 palm oil production get a good start, said the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Kuala Lumpur.
When canola trading begins returning to normal come Jan. 5, the oilseed’s futures are likely to fall back, said Tony Tryhuk, trader with RBC Dominion securities in Winnipeg.
Although there’s a debate over the size of the South American soybean crop, there’s little doubt that it will be an enormous one, said consultant Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale, Ill.
Statistics Canada will release its first survey-based production estimates for the 2025/26 crop year on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.