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If you manage to get timing right once and miss a big part of a bear market, you must again get it right to buy back at the very bottom.
Columns, Global markets

Trying to time the market can ravage a portfolio

Investing for Fun & Profit: A commitment to invest in stocks means acceptance of their inherent volatility

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Many things perceived as impossible are indeed possible — but some aren’t. I just finished reading a book about many of humanity’s greatest discoveries. A theme throughout was how these potential inventions were scoffed at, yet through persistence inventors accomplished the impossible. One of the most satisfying aspects of my agricultural career was proving the […] Read more
The stronger the consensus, the more wrong it usually becomes.
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing

‘Everybody’ is usually wrong — and why it must be so

Overwhelming strength of sentiment, when few buyers or sellers remain, can bend a trend

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Everybody is familiar with the colloquial term “Everybody is doing X.” By “X” we don’t mean “formerly Twitter” — everybody has been writing “X (formerly Twitter)” so I thought I would do the opposite. In this case you’re welcome to fill in whatever you wish for X. Salespeople often use the phrase to help sell […] Read more
Just two per cent of the total companies in the S&P 500 index now represent 32 per cent of the entire index by market value.
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

Economic and market outlook for 2024

If the U.S. avoids recession, Canada's will probably be shallow

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It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” One of my favorite prediction quotes comes by way of the legendary baseball player, manager and philosopher, Yogi Berra. This quote, like many of his famous quips, incorporates a meaningful paradox. Following up on my previous column, the TSX ended 2023 with a total return — […] Read more
Money held in mutual funds dwarfs the rapidly growing exchange-traded funds industry.
Columns

Utilizing exchange-traded funds in an investment portfolio

Buy broad indexes and hold for long periods of time

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Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) came into existence in the 1990s in response to the high fees of the mutual fund industry. They provide broad diversification and are traded like stocks. The original premise of ETFs is because the vast majority of mutual fund managers fail to outperform the market, it’s best to simply invest in the […] Read more
Bears, bulls, corrections, pull-backs
Columns

Bears, bulls, corrections, pull-backs

Economic downturns can have benefits too

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We all love a good bull market, but are uptrending markets always the best for long-term investors? We spend from ages 20 to 60 or even 70 accumulating assets, and only the last 10-30 years cashing them in to live on. Why would we worry about a correction or bear market, unless we are at […] Read more
CBOT May 2020 soybeans with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)
Crops, Markets, Reuters

U.S. grains: Corn, soy, wheat book multi-month lows

Financial markets continue to drag commodities lower

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Chicago | Reuters — U.S. grain and soybean futures sank to multi-month lows on Monday on worries about the coronavirus pandemic denting the global economy and chilling end-user demand for commodities, traders said. “The fear is still that it will only get worse as the week unfolds,” said Mark Schultz, chief analyst at Northstar Commodity […] Read more
ICE Futures May 2020 canola with 20-day moving average and CBOT May 2020 soyoil (red line). (Barchart)
Canola, Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: Volatility hampers canola

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MarketsFarm — Canola values have been at the mercy of volatile financial markets this week, trading in lockstep with headlines of plummeting crude oil values and stock indices. “We’re getting into a bit of a pattern in the markets,” Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg said, explaining that prices will show some strength, then […] Read more
CBOT May 2020 corn with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)
Crops, Markets, Reuters

U.S. grains: Corn, soy, wheat slide with financial markets

Drop in oil prices adds pressure on corn

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Chicago | Reuters — U.S. grain and soybean futures fell on Friday as the spread of the new coronavirus triggered broad selling in commodities and equities. Wall Street tumbled as fears of economic damage intensified with the global tally of cases crossing 100,000. Financial markets view the virus, which causes a flu-like illness, as the […] Read more
Try these seven keys to less risky stock put-selling
Columns

Try these seven keys to less risky stock put-selling

Selling puts is not for the faint of heart, but there are ways to lower your financial risk

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I frequently sell puts. This has helped me build the U.S. side of the taxable portfolio I publish in my newsletter from US$37,405 four years ago to US$90,000 today. Over these years I have been put once, had 14 positions expire and have profitably bought out an additional 11 positions. My profits have totaled $29,000 […] Read more
Investing and the omnipresent impact of the bell curve
Columns

Investing and the omnipresent impact of the bell curve

Outstanding performance of the titanium portfolio on its first anniversary

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Last year I described my “Titanium Strength Model Portfolio,” based on buying and holding strong stocks. Now it’s time to take a look at my results. How did the portfolio perform? How did it compare to market indices? What other nuggets can we glean that might aid our understanding of portfolio management? What does a […] Read more

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