U.S. data vital to global grain and soybean trading has gone dark during the country’s federal government shutdown, leaving commodity traders and farmers without crop production estimates, export sales data and market reports during the peak of the autumn harvest.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday the federal government would support American farmers in light of China’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans amidst a trade war between the countries.
China is expected to import one million tonnes less of canola in 2025/26 than in the previous marketing year, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Beijing projected. China was projected to acquire 3.10 million tonnes of canola this year versus 4.10 million in 2024/25.
Chicago soy futures rebounded on Wednesday from below the psychological $10 threshold after U.S. President Donald Trump said soybeans will be a major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in four weeks.
As canola futures find some ground on the Intercontinental Exchange during the week ended Sept. 24, the Canadian oilseed’s path will soon be a steady decline. That’s the assessment from Tony Tryhuk, trader with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said he had “constructive” trade talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the U.N. assembly in New York and covered agri-food products like canola as well as seafood and electric vehicles.
Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang met political and business leaders from the U.S. Midwest. Analysts speculate the region’s food exports will be key to any U.S.-China trade deal.
In an unexpected move, Argentina has seriously disrupted any possible new crop soybean purchases to be made by China from the United States, said analyst Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in Hinsdale, Ill.