Weather stress on various crops worldwide has goosed wheat, durum and barley values in the CWB’s latest pool return outlook (PRO) — but there’s not much room for them to rise in the board’s "highly sold" pools.
The CWB’s 2011-12 outlook on Thursday saw wheat and durum values rise by $3-$5 per tonne and malting barley values up by $1 per tonne, compared to the May PRO.
Since the May outlook, wheat prices have risen in both futures and cash markets on concerns about wheat crops in the Black Sea region and drought conditions in the U.S. Corn Belt, the CWB said Thursday.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently cut its world wheat production forecast by about 5.5 million tonnes, down to 672 million tonnes, due to "ongoing problems" in Europe and the Black Sea region.
Furthermore, the CWB said, "it appears that the U.S. corn crop is not likely to reach the lofty projections of early June and, as a result, corn supplies will tighten. This is supportive not only of corn, but also of wheat and other grains."
All those influences, however, sent pool values "modestly" upward. As of Thursday, the CWB said, it had already priced about 92 per cent of its expected 2011-12 crop year deliveries of wheat, and expects that level to reach about 97 per cent by the end of July.
High-protein (14.5 per cent) No. 1 Canada Western red spring (CWRS) wheat rose $3 per tonne from May levels, to $335 ($9.12 per bushel), in Thursday’s PRO. No. 1 CWRS at 11.5 per cent protein rose $5 per tonne, to $274 ($7.46/bu.).
Both No. 3 CW red winter (CWRW) and CW feed-grade wheat rose $5 per tonne, to $250 ($6.80/bu.) and $224 ($6.10/bu.) respectively.
Most of the price movement in durum "can be attributed to the rise in wheat prices" and was also limited by the "largely sold" pool, the CWB said Thursday.
Durum fundamentals remain "largely unchanged" and conditions are still favourable in most areas of the U.S. and Canada, except in some areas of Saskatchewan under pressure from excess moisture, the CWB said.
High-protein (14.5 per cent) No. 1 CW amber durum (CWAD) rose $3 per tonne from the May level to $358 ($9.74/bu.) in Thursday’s PRO. No. 4 and No. 5 CWAD rose $4 and $5 per tonne, respectively, to $267 ($7.27/bu.) and $224 ($6.10).
The "highly sold" position of the CWB’s malting barley pool also kept a lid on increases in PRO barley values, which saw support from "the same concerns that boosted the wheat crop — Black Sea crop issues and the U.S. corn rally."
The CWB also noted Statistics Canada data showing only seven million acres of barley were seeded this year in Canada, down by almost 600,000 from its seeding intentions report in March.
These supportive influences, however, led to increases of just $1 per tonne in both Select CW two-row and six-row designated barley, with PRO values now pegged at $310 ($6.75/bu.) and $295 ($6.42/bu.) respectively.
The CWB’s next 2011-12 PRO is expected to be released July 26.