Wheat markets’ fall and rise leave PROs flat

A steep drop in spring wheat prices over the past month, followed by a rally in the past week, has led to not much movement in the CWB’s latest pool return outlook (PRO).

Durum and malting barley values were unchanged in the CWB’s May 2011-12 PRO, released Thursday. Milling wheat values, meanwhile, ranged from flat to $2 per tonne higher compared to the April outlook.

Kansas City and Chicago wheat markets recently rallied by about 50 cents per bushel on increasing concerns about global wheat production, the CWB said in its outlook Thursday.

"Unfavourable weather in Europe, the United States and the Black Sea region has lowered production potential and helped tighten projected ending stocks."

High-protein (14.5 per cent) No. 1 Canada Western red spring (CWRS) wheat got a $1 per tonne bump in the May PRO, to $332 per tonne ($9.04 per bushel). No. 1 CWRS (13.5 per cent) and No. 1 CW hard white spring (13.5 per cent) both rose $2, to $321 ($8.74/bu.). No. 3 CWRS (13 per cent) jumped $2 from April, to $289 per tonne ($7.87/bu.).

No. 1 Canada Prairie spring white rose $1 per tonne to $245 ($6.67/bu.) while No. 1 CW extra strong rose $2, to $291 ($7.92/bu.).

The CWB said Thursday it has priced about 85 per cent of expected 2011-12 crop year deliveries of Prairie wheat, and expects that level to reach about 97 per cent by the end of July.

Durum prices have followed spring wheat values and are now stuck due to harvest activity in the durum-growing regions of the Mediterranean basin, although crop losses in that area have been "price supportive," the CWB said.

North America’s durum growers are nearly finished seeding, the CWB said, "although delays in Canada will likely cause some reduction in acreage from initial intentions."

High-protein (14.5 per cent) No. 1 CW amber durum remains at $355 per tonne ($9.66/bu.), while No. 2 CWAD (13 per cent) remains at $332 ($9.04/bu.) and No. 4 CWAD is parked at $263 ($7.16/bu.).

Malting barley

Europe’s barley growers have boosted their spring acres this year, "which should result in a larger supply of selectable barley," the CWB said Thursday. "Ample" supplies of old-crop malting barley in Australia and good new-crop prospects in the European Union, U.S. and Argentina are still pressuring nearby prices.

Malting barley values in the May PRO, however, are "largely unchanged due to the fact that the pool is highly sold."

Select CW two-row and six-row designated barley remain at $309 per tonne ($6.73/bu.) and $294 per tonne ($6.40/bu.), respectively, in the May PRO.

The CWB’s next 2011-12 PRO is scheduled to be released June 28.

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