IGC expects larger world grain crop but tighter stocks

(JJ Gouin/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — World grain production is forecast to hit a new record in 2021-22, but increasing demand should still cause ending stocks to tighten to their lowest level in seven years, according to updated projections from the International Grains Council.

Total grain production — which includes wheat, corn and other coarse grains — is forecast to rise to 2.292 billion tonnes. That’s up by five million tonnes from the April forecast and compares with the 2.22 billion tonnes grown during the current marketing year.

Consumption is forecast to rise to 2.297 billion tonnes, from an estimated 2.237 billion for 2020-21. That would see projected ending stocks drop from 599 million to 595 million tonnes for 2021-22, according to the IGC.

Of the total, the IGC left its world wheat production estimate for 2021-22 unchanged at 790 million tonnes. That would be up from the 774 million tonne estimate for 2020-21. Total world wheat consumption is forecast to rise to 787 million tonnes, from a projected 766 million during the current marketing year.

Wheat ending stocks are forecast at 288 million tonnes, which would be down by 10 million from an earlier forecast, but still up from the 285 million tonne forecast for 2020-21.

For corn, total production for 2021-22 is now forecast at 1.194 billion tonnes. That’s up by two million from an earlier estimate and 60 million tonnes above what was grown in 2020-21. World corn consumption, at an estimated 1.2 billion tonnes, would be up from the 1.165 billion-tonne estimate for 2020-21.

World corn ending stocks are forecast to tighten to 261 million tonnes in 2021-22 by the IGC. That would be down by six million on the year.

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