Grains drop, soy firm following WASDE report

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MarketsFarm — Monthly supply/demand data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture were supportive for soybean prices but bearish for corn and wheat, with adjustments to yields and harvested acres providing a number of surprises.

Corn futures saw the largest immediate reaction at the Chicago Board of Trade, as average yields were unexpectedly raised to 168.4 bushels per acre from 168.2 bu./ac. in USDA’s September world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report, released Thursday.

Average trade estimates had been for a slight reduction in average yields.

Harvested corn area was lowered, but not by as much as traders had anticipated and total production of 13.779 billion bushels came in at the high side of pre-report expectations. U.S. corn carryout for the 2019-20 crop year was pegged at 1.929 billion bushels, which was well above average trade guesses.

For soybeans, USDA lowered its average yield projection to 46.9 bu./ac., which was in line with expectations. Harvested soybean area was revised lower as well, and total production of 3.55 billion bushels was down from the September forecast of 3.633 billion. Soybean ending stocks at 460 million bushels were well below average trade guesses.

The report’s wheat tables saw USDA raise its world ending stocks forecast for the marketing year by 1.3 million tonnes, to 287.8 million tonnes – at the higher end of pre-report expectations.

Total U.S. wheat production was estimated at 1.962 billion bushels, down slightly from the September estimate but still above the 1.885 billion bushels grown the previous year. Of that total, spring wheat was forecast at 559 million bushels, which compares with the 587 million bushels grown the previous year.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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