CBOT Review: Threat of harvest delays strengthen soybeans

By Brandon Logan, Commodity News Service Canada

Soybean futures finished stronger on Wednesday, underpinned by a wet forecast for the US Farm Belt that could delay the end of the US soybean harvest, market watchers said.

Expectations that Thursday’s USDA export report (which will have three weeks of data due to the 16-day partial shutdown of the US government) will show strong export demand were bullish.

However, favourable weather forecasts for soybean crop development in South America limited gains.

CBOT Soybean Futures Prices (US$ per bushel) – 30 October
Contract Month Closing Price Previous Close Daily Change % Daily Change Daily High Daily Low
Nov 12.8750  12.7900   +0.0850 +0.665%  12.9250 12.7900
Jan 12.7650  12.7075   +0.0575 +0.452%  12.8050 12.7050

 

SOYOIL futures closed higher on Wednesday, underpinned by spillover gains seen in the Malaysian palm oil market, analysts said.  

CBOT Soyoil Futures Prices (US cents per pound) – 30 October
Contract Month Closing Price Previous Close Daily Change % Daily Change Daily High Daily Low
Dec  41.62   40.97     +0.65    +1.511%  41.95  40.88
Jan  41.90   41.26     +0.64    +1.501%  42.22  41.18

 

SOYMEAL futures were stronger on Wednesday, underpinned by spillover strength from the soybean market, analysts said.

CBOT Soymeal Futures Prices (US$ per hundredweight) – 30 October
Contract Month Closing Price Previous Close Daily Change % Daily Change Daily High Daily Low
Dec 411.80 410.80    +1.00  +0.243% 414.90 410.00
Jan 402.50 401.90    +0.60  +0.149% 404.90 400.70

 

CORN futures closed slightly lower on Wednesday, undermined by harvest pressure and continued expectations of a record large US crop, analysts said.

There has been some speculation from traders that the Nov. 8 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report could show US production at over 14 billion bushel, which would be a US record.

Reports of stronger-than-expected yields added to the bearish tone.

However, rainy weather for parts of the US Corn Belt during the rest of the week provided some support, as harvest activity could be delayed, brokers said.

News that South Korea purchased 368,000 tonnes of US corn overnight for delivery in the spring halted any further losses.

CBOT Corn Futures Prices (US$ per bushel) – 30 October
Contract Month Closing Price Previous Close Daily Change % Daily Change Daily High Daily Low
Dec 4.3025 4.3200  -0.0175    -0.405%  4.3500  4.2950
Mar 4.4175 4.4425  -0.0250    -0.563%  4.4675  4.4100

 

WHEAT futures closed lower on Wednesday, undermined by profit taking following gains seen in recent sessions, industry watchers said.

Reports that India is cutting their floor wheat export price to US$260 per tonnes from US$300 per tonnes were bearish, as it will lead to higher Indian exports, which could slow US and European exports.

However, news that Australia could see reduced wheat yields due to frost damage limited losses.

CBOT Wheat Futures Prices (US$ per bushel) –  30 October
Contract

Month

Closing Price Previous Close Daily Change % Daily Change Daily High Daily Low
Dec  6.7500  6.8125   -0.0625   -0.917%  6.8850  6.7400
Mar  6.8650  6.9250   -0.0600   -0.866%  6.9950  6.8525

 

RICE futures closed lower on Wednesday, undermined by reports of better-than-expected yields in Arkansas, participants said.

However, news that most states have finished their harvest limited losses.  

CBOT Rice Futures Prices (US$ per hundredweight) – 30 October
Contract Month Closing Price Previous Close Daily Change % Daily Change Daily High Daily Low
Nov 15.255  15.580   -0.325 -2.086%  15.520 15.410
Jan 15.305  15.475   -0.170 -1.099%  15.430 15.380

                        

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