Canola export forecast raised for 2019-20

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MarketsFarm — Canadian canola exports in 2019-20 should beat earlier forecasts, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released Friday.

While the improved exports will cut into ending stocks, the carryout is still forecast to be record-large.

Citing a seasonal weather market rally and expectations for an increase in prevent planting acres in the U.S., due to excessive rain and flooding, AAFC raised its 2019-20 canola export forecast to nine million tonnes, from eight million in May.

That would still be down from the 9.3 million tonnes forecast for the current marketing year and 2017-18’s exports of 10.7 million, as a trade dispute with China continues to hamper movement.

“Exports are forecast to remain constrained, assuming no normalization of agricultural trade between China and Canada,” the report said. “The export forecast remains highly uncertain and any change directly affects the carry-out stock estimate.”

The upward adjustment in exports saw the government agency lower its 2019-20 canola ending stocks forecast to 4.3 million tonnes, which compares with the May estimate of 5.3 million.

That would still be well above the previous record, and compares with an anticipated 3.9 million-tonne carryout for 2018-19 and the 2.5 million reported at the end of the 2017-18 crop year.

Total wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 are also expected to be tighter than earlier estimates, but still large overall. AAFC pegged wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 at 6.7 million tonnes, which compares with the May estimate of 7.1 million. Wheat carryout for 2018-19 is estimated 5.4 million tonnes.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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