MarketsFarm — Canadian crop production will be down significantly in the 2021-22 marketing year, cutting into exports for all of the country’s major grains, oilseeds and pulse crops.
That’s the estimation from the latest supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released Thursday.
Total field crop production for all crops is forecast to decrease by 27 per cent on the year, with total supplies down 26 per cent due to tight carry-in supplies and poor growing conditions.
Drought conditions across the Prairies worsened significantly throughout July, with 74 per cent of Canadian agricultural areas classified as abnormally dry or in drought, according to the AAFC Drought Monitor.
Canola production for 2021-22 is forecast at 15 million tonnes by the government agency, which compares with the July estimate of 19.885 million and the year-ago level of 18.72 million tonnes.
Statistics Canada is scheduled to release its first survey-based production estimates for the crop year on Monday.
With canola production down on the year, exports of the crop are forecast to fall from an estimated 10.9 million tonnes in 2020-21 to only seven million.
For wheat, AAFC lowered the all-wheat production forecast to 20.179 million tonnes, which would be well below the 35.187 million grown the previous year. Forecast wheat exports are expected to be only about half of what moved in 2020-21, at 14.1 million tonnes.
Canadian wheat ending stocks in 2021-22 are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, which compares with the July estimate of 4.9 million and the 2020-21 carryout of 4.933 million tonnes.
Most other major crops grown in Western Canada are also forecast to see lower production and exports in 2021-22. However, soybeans and corn, which are primarily grown in Eastern Canada, only saw minor adjustments from the July report.
Tables: August estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
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