AAFC forecasts more wheat, less canola seeded in spring

MarketsFarm — Canada’s farmers will seed more wheat and less canola in the 2020 growing season, according to the first supply/demand estimates for the 2020-21 marketing year, released Thursday by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Total seeded wheat area is forecast to rise to 25.77 million acres, from 25.02 million the previous year. Production is forecast at 33.9 million tonnes, which would be up by about 1.5 million tonnes on the year. Of that total, much of the increase is expected in durum, with the government agency forecasting an 18 per cent rise in production to 5.9 million tonnes.

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For canola, seeded area is forecast to decline by two per cent, to 20.51 million acres. Total canola production is forecast at 18.5 million tonnes, which would be the smallest crop in six years.

Canola ending stocks are forecast to tighten to three million tonnes by the end of the 2020-21 crop year, which compares with the projected 3.5 million-tonne carryout projected for the current marketing year and the 4.09 million tonnes seen at the end of 2018-19.

Wheat ending stocks are forecast to rise to 6.5 million tonnes for 2020-21, which compares with the 5.85 million-tonne forecast for 2019-20.

Forecasted barley production of 9.52 million tonnes would be down by eight per cent on the year, while the oat crop is expected to rise by five per cent, to 4.38 million tonnes.

Planted soybean and corn area are both projected to be down slightly on the year, but production of the two crops was forecast to rise due to improved yield expectations. AAFC estimates soybean production at 6.55 million tonnes and corn at 13.85 million tonnes.

The early forecast calls for only slight adjustments in the pulse and special crop balance sheets, with both pea and lentil production forecast to be relatively stable on the year.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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