The first public stock exchange opened in Amsterdam in 1611, trading one company, the Dutch East India Company. Twenty-five years later, coincident with tulip mania, the company had a market cap of 78 million Dutch guilders, which translates to $9.7 trillion current U.S. dollars, putting Microsoft’s and Apple’s near-$3 trillion valuations into perspective. The London […] Read more
Markets are dispassionate to our human disasters
Investing for Fun and Profit: While headlines may exalt a unique situation, to markets it's 'same as it ever was'
Trying to time the market can ravage a portfolio
Investing for Fun & Profit: A commitment to invest in stocks means acceptance of their inherent volatility
Many things perceived as impossible are indeed possible — but some aren’t. I just finished reading a book about many of humanity’s greatest discoveries. A theme throughout was how these potential inventions were scoffed at, yet through persistence inventors accomplished the impossible. One of the most satisfying aspects of my agricultural career was proving the […] Read more
‘Everybody’ is usually wrong — and why it must be so
Overwhelming strength of sentiment, when few buyers or sellers remain, can bend a trend
Everybody is familiar with the colloquial term “Everybody is doing X.” By “X” we don’t mean “formerly Twitter” — everybody has been writing “X (formerly Twitter)” so I thought I would do the opposite. In this case you’re welcome to fill in whatever you wish for X. Salespeople often use the phrase to help sell […] Read more
Economic and market outlook for 2024
If the U.S. avoids recession, Canada's will probably be shallow
It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” One of my favorite prediction quotes comes by way of the legendary baseball player, manager and philosopher, Yogi Berra. This quote, like many of his famous quips, incorporates a meaningful paradox. Following up on my previous column, the TSX ended 2023 with a total return — […] Read more
How did 2023’s economic and market predictions turn out?
Predictions are often made but their accuracy never evaluated, yet this is an important step
For the past seven years in my newsletter, I have made annual “Fearless Predictions.” I also summarize predictions from the investment industry. The last chapter of my book, titled “If I claim to be a wise man…it surely means that I don’t know,” launched my annual prediction exercise, largely to poke fun at the process. […] Read more
The value of target prices
How accurate are analysts’ projections on stocks’ price movements?
One aspect of my character that has served me well over the years is a healthy sense of skepticism of what I hear or read. This “skill,” for lack of a better word, is becoming increasingly important in the information age, more accurately described as the misinformation age. I read a lot to know what […] Read more
The tale of two economies
Strong energy prices would normally lead to a strong Canadian currency
U.S. third-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) grew at an annualized rate of 4.9 per cent. This followed second-quarter growth of 2.1 and first-quarter of 1.1 per cent. Rather than the widely predicted recession, the U.S has experienced accelerating growth. Canada, on the other hand, is flatlining, with first-quarter growth of 0.8 per cent, second-quarter at […] Read more
Picks and shovels for the alternative energy industry
The dominant players in the biofuels sector today are the traditional grain handlers and processors
It’s said that the big money, in gold rushes of yore, wasn’t in the gold miners but in those who supplied the picks and shovels. Vendors of sins, booze and brothels also did well. With this issue we’ll have a look at companies that, while not wholly reliant on alternative energy, stand to benefit from […] Read more
More investing opportunities in alternative energy
A look at wind and solar energies and electric vehicles
My last column looked at potential investments in nuclear and geothermal, two viable alternative energy sources. Let’s now look at possibilities in what’s considered the alternative energy holy trinity of wind, solar and electric vehicles. These three areas have taken most alternative energy investments over the past decade. Estimates of what has already been spent […] Read more
Investing opportunities in alternative energy
Why can’t we have a rational debate in search of pragmatic goals?
Some of my past writings may have left you with the impression I exhibit Luddite-like attitudes toward new sources of cleaner energy. That wouldn’t be an accurate impression as I have been investing in alternative energy for a long time. I simply wish there was a more fact-based, rational discussion on the pros and cons. […] Read more
Cyber-Savvy Farmer
