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Tag Archives Recession

Despite my call for an official recession in Canada, I do think our stocks will perform better, with a gain of perhaps 10 per cent.
Columns, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

A spectacular 2024 defied predictions, again

Investing for Fun and Profit: Also, my amateur investor market outlook for 2025

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The stock market was a happy place in 2024, with the U.S. S&P 500 delivering a 25 per cent total return, including dividends. Even the laggardly Canadian TSX joined the party with a total return of 21.6 per cent. How did my 2024 predictions turn out compared to the pros, and what do I see […] Read more
us politicians photo illustration
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing

The cycles within economic cycles

Investing for Fun and Profit: The economic cycle, presidential cycle and stock market cycle are separate entities that interact

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The S&P 500 — the market I’ll be referencing throughout this article — has been on a tear the past couple of years, leading many to wonder if the hot bull market can continue. It was up 26.3 per cent in 2023 and at time of writing is up about 23 per cent year-to-date. Let’s […] Read more
Just two per cent of the total companies in the S&P 500 index now represent 32 per cent of the entire index by market value.
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

Economic and market outlook for 2024

If the U.S. avoids recession, Canada's will probably be shallow

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It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” One of my favorite prediction quotes comes by way of the legendary baseball player, manager and philosopher, Yogi Berra. This quote, like many of his famous quips, incorporates a meaningful paradox. Following up on my previous column, the TSX ended 2023 with a total return — […] Read more
Oil inventories remain low, but recession fears leading to price declines continue to permeate the market.
Columns, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

How did 2023’s economic and market predictions turn out?

Predictions are often made but their accuracy never evaluated, yet this is an important step

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For the past seven years in my newsletter, I have made annual “Fearless Predictions.” I also summarize predictions from the investment industry. The last chapter of my book, titled “If I claim to be a wise man…it surely means that I don’t know,” launched my annual prediction exercise, largely to poke fun at the process. […] Read more
Photo: File
General, Markets

Volatile oil market most likely to improve says analyst 

Israel-Gaza war, Red Sea attacks having less impact than expected

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As the global oil market continued to ready itself for 2024, one analyst stated it’s more likely prices will increase than to drop further. Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group in Chicago said one’s outlook on crude oil is predicated on their economic view. 
NYMEX March 2023 West Texas Intermediate crude oil (candlesticks) with 100-day moving average (black line) and ICE March 2023 Brent crude oil (blue open/high/low/close). (Barchart)
General, Machinery, Markets

China driving crude oil price increases

Bulls on crude oil expect a 'very shallow' recession

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MarketsFarm — China has largely been behind the current upticks in global crude oil prices, according to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for Oil Price Information Services in Lakewood, NJ. He suggested that China’s economy will begin to pick up steam in 2023 after the government loosened its super-tight COVID-19 restrictions. “You can […] Read more
ICE March 2023 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)
Canola, Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: Sideways canola market watching macros

USDA report may offer nearby direction

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MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts remain stuck in a sideways trading range to start the New Year, with bearish outside forces countered by relatively supportive fundamentals. From a chart standpoint, March canola is stuck in a sideways range between $800 and $900, with little to suggest a break one way or the other for […] Read more
CBOT December 2022 soft red winter wheat (candlesticks) with 20-day moving average (green line), MGEX December 2022 hard red spring wheat (yellow line) and K.C. December 2022 hard red winter wheat (orange line). (Barchart)
Crops, Markets, Reuters

U.S. grains: Wheat, corn, soybeans sag on recession fears

Projections raised for Russian wheat crop

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Chicago | Reuters — U.S. wheat futures fell more than two per cent and corn and soybeans followed the weaker trend on Monday, as fears of a global economic downturn, a rising dollar and expectations of a bumper wheat crop in Russia weighed on commodity markets, analysts said. Forecasts for favourably dry weather for the […] Read more
A canola field near Pincher Creek, Alta. (Laughingmango/E+/Getty Images)
General, Markets

Ag industry a potential ‘bright spot,’ post-pandemic

Agriculture could lead economic rebuild, ATB official says

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Alberta’s ag sector will be key in rebuilding the province’s economy once the pandemic is over, says the director of research for economics at ATB Financial. “Overall, I think one of the bright spots in a really dark economic situation in the province is our agriculture and agri-food sector,” Rob Roach said. “It’s still producing. […] Read more

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