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Just two per cent of the total companies in the S&P 500 index now represent 32 per cent of the entire index by market value.
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

Economic and market outlook for 2024

If the U.S. avoids recession, Canada's will probably be shallow

By
It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” One of my favorite prediction quotes comes by way of the legendary baseball player, manager and philosopher, Yogi Berra. This quote, like many of his famous quips, incorporates a meaningful paradox. Following up on my previous column, the TSX ended 2023 with a total return — […] Read more
Oil inventories remain low, but recession fears leading to price declines continue to permeate the market.
Columns, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

How did 2023’s economic and market predictions turn out?

Predictions are often made but their accuracy never evaluated, yet this is an important step

By
For the past seven years in my newsletter, I have made annual “Fearless Predictions.” I also summarize predictions from the investment industry. The last chapter of my book, titled “If I claim to be a wise man…it surely means that I don’t know,” launched my annual prediction exercise, largely to poke fun at the process. […] Read more
Several reasons exist for the recent divergence between our two interconnected economies.
Columns, Home Quarter Investing

The tale of two economies

Strong energy prices would normally lead to a strong Canadian currency

By
U.S. third-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) grew at an annualized rate of 4.9 per cent. This followed second-quarter growth of 2.1 and first-quarter of 1.1 per cent. Rather than the widely predicted recession, the U.S has experienced accelerating growth. Canada, on the other hand, is flatlining, with first-quarter growth of 0.8 per cent, second-quarter at […] Read more
ethanol production plant in western manitoba
Columns

Picks and shovels for the alternative energy industry

The dominant players in the biofuels sector today are the traditional grain handlers and processors

By
It’s said that the big money, in gold rushes of yore, wasn’t in the gold miners but in those who supplied the picks and shovels. Vendors of sins, booze and brothels also did well. With this issue we’ll have a look at companies that, while not wholly reliant on alternative energy, stand to benefit from […] Read more
Are energy companies displaying “grotesque greed”?
Columns

Are energy companies displaying “grotesque greed”?

Vilification of profits continues unabated

By
Shortly after submitting my previous article on the vilification of the word “profit,” and even more so when related to oil, the headline “UN Head Calls for Taxing ‘Grotesquely Greedy’ Oil” appeared in a newsletter I read, with the following quote: “UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on governments globally to tax these excessive profits […] Read more
Commodity booms and busts: Part 2
Columns

Commodity booms and busts: Part 2

Rinse and repeat: commodity stock prices follow an ever-repeating cycle

By
Where are we in the current economic cycle? Canada experienced a minor commodity-driven recession in 2015. It was a major recession in oil-producing regions but unfelt in other parts of the country. The United States has not experienced negative growth since 2009. My focus with this article is the United States because well, it’s the […] Read more
Commodity booms and busts: Part 1
Columns

Commodity booms and busts: Part 1

Commodity price highs and lows are tightly tied to the economic cycle

By
The U.S. stock market had one of its worst decades on record from 2000 to 2009, even worse than from 1930 to 1939, averaging just 1.2 per cent returns annually. Commodities, on the other hand, had a fantastic decade. U.S. stock markets had a great decade from 2010 to 2019, averaging 14.2 per cent annual […] Read more
Columns

Year and decade financial review: Part 1

Canada started the last decade strong, but wound up weaker than the U.S. Why?


By
2010 was a good year, but from all the gnashing of teeth, it didn’t seem that way. The world had narrowly escaped another Great Depression, only experiencing the Great Recession. The financial crisis emanated from a U.S. housing crash, quickly spreading to Europe and around the world. Canada stood strong, and by comparison, the 2008 […] Read more
The Sky is not falling, Part 2
Columns

The Sky is not falling, Part 2

Free markets are best equipped to find solutions to global problems


By
Developed economies operate under a democratic, capitalist, free-market system. Developing countries often have socialist, autocratic, controlled-market systems — although many are becoming freer. It seems obvious to me which system is superior, yet the continuing tug on free-market economies is towards socialism, because “profit” is considered a dirty word implying that one party took advantage […] Read more
The investment world ebbs and flows with sentiment, something that holds very true when it comes to Canada’s oil and gas sector.
Columns

Investing for a positive, progressing world

Herman VanGenderen wants to assure you that the sky is not falling

By
Chicken Little is a famous storybook character. He (or she) had an acorn drop on his head and concluded the sky was falling. As he rushed to tell the king, he ran through the countryside yelling “the sky is falling. The sky is falling.” Along the way he collected other like-minded fowl, all yelling, “The […] Read more

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