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Tag Archives investing for fun and profit

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Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing

How we choose highly profitable companies at reasonable valuations

Investing for Fun & Profit: It's both an art and a science -- but mostly science

By
In previous articles I’ve frequently mentioned the importance of selecting highly profitable companies at reasonable valuations. I’d like to illustrate with a real-life example of a switch I made in our tax-free savings accounts (TFSAs) at the start of the year. Our TFSA performance has lagged recently even though since inception they are still running […] Read more
guy looking skyward holding sign proclaiming end times
Columns, Home Quarter Investing

Markets are dispassionate to our human disasters

Investing for Fun and Profit: While headlines may exalt a unique situation, to markets it's 'same as it ever was'

By
The first public stock exchange opened in Amsterdam in 1611, trading one company, the Dutch East India Company. Twenty-five years later, coincident with tulip mania, the company had a market cap of 78 million Dutch guilders, which translates to $9.7 trillion current U.S. dollars, putting Microsoft’s and Apple’s near-$3 trillion valuations into perspective. The London […] Read more
If you manage to get timing right once and miss a big part of a bear market, you must again get it right to buy back at the very bottom.
Columns, Global markets

Trying to time the market can ravage a portfolio

Investing for Fun & Profit: A commitment to invest in stocks means acceptance of their inherent volatility

By
Many things perceived as impossible are indeed possible — but some aren’t. I just finished reading a book about many of humanity’s greatest discoveries. A theme throughout was how these potential inventions were scoffed at, yet through persistence inventors accomplished the impossible. One of the most satisfying aspects of my agricultural career was proving the […] Read more
The stronger the consensus, the more wrong it usually becomes.
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing

‘Everybody’ is usually wrong — and why it must be so

Overwhelming strength of sentiment, when few buyers or sellers remain, can bend a trend

By
Everybody is familiar with the colloquial term “Everybody is doing X.” By “X” we don’t mean “formerly Twitter” — everybody has been writing “X (formerly Twitter)” so I thought I would do the opposite. In this case you’re welcome to fill in whatever you wish for X. Salespeople often use the phrase to help sell […] Read more
Just two per cent of the total companies in the S&P 500 index now represent 32 per cent of the entire index by market value.
Columns, Global markets, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

Economic and market outlook for 2024

If the U.S. avoids recession, Canada's will probably be shallow

By
It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” One of my favorite prediction quotes comes by way of the legendary baseball player, manager and philosopher, Yogi Berra. This quote, like many of his famous quips, incorporates a meaningful paradox. Following up on my previous column, the TSX ended 2023 with a total return — […] Read more
Oil inventories remain low, but recession fears leading to price declines continue to permeate the market.
Columns, Home Quarter Investing, Markets

How did 2023’s economic and market predictions turn out?

Predictions are often made but their accuracy never evaluated, yet this is an important step

By
For the past seven years in my newsletter, I have made annual “Fearless Predictions.” I also summarize predictions from the investment industry. The last chapter of my book, titled “If I claim to be a wise man…it surely means that I don’t know,” launched my annual prediction exercise, largely to poke fun at the process. […] Read more
Several reasons exist for the recent divergence between our two interconnected economies.
Columns, Home Quarter Investing

The tale of two economies

Strong energy prices would normally lead to a strong Canadian currency

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U.S. third-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) grew at an annualized rate of 4.9 per cent. This followed second-quarter growth of 2.1 and first-quarter of 1.1 per cent. Rather than the widely predicted recession, the U.S has experienced accelerating growth. Canada, on the other hand, is flatlining, with first-quarter growth of 0.8 per cent, second-quarter at […] Read more
ethanol production plant in western manitoba
Columns

Picks and shovels for the alternative energy industry

The dominant players in the biofuels sector today are the traditional grain handlers and processors

By
It’s said that the big money, in gold rushes of yore, wasn’t in the gold miners but in those who supplied the picks and shovels. Vendors of sins, booze and brothels also did well. With this issue we’ll have a look at companies that, while not wholly reliant on alternative energy, stand to benefit from […] Read more
Are energy companies displaying “grotesque greed”?
Columns

Are energy companies displaying “grotesque greed”?

Vilification of profits continues unabated

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Shortly after submitting my previous article on the vilification of the word “profit,” and even more so when related to oil, the headline “UN Head Calls for Taxing ‘Grotesquely Greedy’ Oil” appeared in a newsletter I read, with the following quote: “UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called on governments globally to tax these excessive profits […] Read more
Commodity booms and busts: Part 2
Columns

Commodity booms and busts: Part 2

Rinse and repeat: commodity stock prices follow an ever-repeating cycle

By
Where are we in the current economic cycle? Canada experienced a minor commodity-driven recession in 2015. It was a major recession in oil-producing regions but unfelt in other parts of the country. The United States has not experienced negative growth since 2009. My focus with this article is the United States because well, it’s the […] Read more

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