A pause on tariffs from the United States gave the canola market a boost during the first few trading days of February, although the outlook remains cloudy, and values ran into resistance on Feb. 5.
There is skepticism in the trade towards the latest numbers from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and those to come from Statistics Canada on Aug. 28, according to broker Ken Ball of Ventum Financial in Winnipeg.
The ICE Futures canola market fell sharply lower during the week ended Aug. 14, hitting its lowest levels since 2020 as rising soybean production estimates out of the United States weighed on values.
Canola futures at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) followed the lead of vegetable oils during the first trading week of August, posting sharp losses despite seeing a modest correction on Aug. 7.
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola market tried to salvage what it can at the end of July after a sharp downturn in prices over the past week.
While the November contract fell below C$600 per tonne on June 26 for the first time since late February, it has since gained more than C$50 to close at C$652.70 on July 3. Earlier that day, the contract reached C$659.70, its highest level since June 7.
Although canola futures on the International Exchange have lost a fair bit of value over the last several weeks, there is a case to be made that the Canadian oilseed is rangebound.
Canola across most of the Prairies appeared to be in good shape during the second last week of June, with very little prospect of a major rally according to a trader.
The ICE Futures canola market fell sharply lower during the first few trading days of June, taking out several former support levels on the way down as large old crop supplies, relatively favourable new crop production prospects and speculative fund selling weighed on prices.
With the growing likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, spillover from the move could prove to be beneficial for canola prices, according to Calgary-based Errol Anderson of Errol’s Commodity Wire.