Despite my call for an official recession in Canada, I do think our stocks will perform better, with a gain of perhaps 10 per cent.

A spectacular 2024 defied predictions, again

Investing for Fun and Profit: Also, my amateur investor market outlook for 2025

The stock market was a happy place in 2024, with the U.S. S&P 500 delivering a 25 per cent total return, including dividends. Even the laggardly Canadian TSX joined the party with a total return of 21.6 per cent. How did my 2024 predictions turn out compared to the pros, and what do I see […] Read more

The average of the big bank projections was for the S&P 500 to gain 1.9 per cent, but as of late November the S&P 500 was up 25.5 per cent.

Analysts’ target prices again miss the mark

Investing for Fun and Profit: I plan to continue to ignore those target prices when making decisions

Approximately a year ago a column titled “The value of target prices” studied analyst price targets on every TSX index stock with how the stock actually performed over the next year. Analyst target prices had been conveniently amalgamated in a Globe and Mail article. While I had never used target prices to make purchase or […] Read more


us politicians photo illustration

The cycles within economic cycles

Investing for Fun and Profit: The economic cycle, presidential cycle and stock market cycle are separate entities that interact

The S&P 500 — the market I’ll be referencing throughout this article — has been on a tear the past couple of years, leading many to wonder if the hot bull market can continue. It was up 26.3 per cent in 2023 and at time of writing is up about 23 per cent year-to-date. Let’s […] Read more

Governments have only a limited amount of sway over markets at large but can influence investor sentiment on different sectors, such as health care or alternative energy.

Is it best, when investing, to stay politically agnostic?

Investing for Fun and Profit: Besides, how much influence do governments really have on the markets?

I began this column the day after the great Harris/Trump debate. Based on the publishing schedule, you might be reading it just before the U.S. election. A lot can happen in both politics and the markets over a six-week period, but I thought it would be an appropriate time to review how politics may or […] Read more


Not long ago people carried Nokias, Motorolas and BlackBerrys. Ten years from now, will we still all have iPhones?

A brief history of market dominance

Investing for Fun and Profit: Is the publicly traded past a guide for the future?

The largest 10 U.S. companies by market capitalization (number of shares, multiplied by price per share) currently represent about 30 per cent of the value of the entire U.S. publicly traded universe, and the U.S represents about 60 of the world market cap. Therefore these 10 companies represent about 18 per cent of the entire […] Read more

guy looking skyward holding sign proclaiming end times

Markets are dispassionate to our human disasters

Investing for Fun and Profit: While headlines may exalt a unique situation, to markets it's 'same as it ever was'

The first public stock exchange opened in Amsterdam in 1611, trading one company, the Dutch East India Company. Twenty-five years later, coincident with tulip mania, the company had a market cap of 78 million Dutch guilders, which translates to $9.7 trillion current U.S. dollars, putting Microsoft’s and Apple’s near-$3 trillion valuations into perspective. The London […] Read more


If you manage to get timing right once and miss a big part of a bear market, you must again get it right to buy back at the very bottom.

Trying to time the market can ravage a portfolio

Investing for Fun & Profit: A commitment to invest in stocks means acceptance of their inherent volatility

Many things perceived as impossible are indeed possible — but some aren’t. I just finished reading a book about many of humanity’s greatest discoveries. A theme throughout was how these potential inventions were scoffed at, yet through persistence inventors accomplished the impossible. One of the most satisfying aspects of my agricultural career was proving the […] Read more

The stronger the consensus, the more wrong it usually becomes.

‘Everybody’ is usually wrong — and why it must be so

Overwhelming strength of sentiment, when few buyers or sellers remain, can bend a trend

Everybody is familiar with the colloquial term “Everybody is doing X.” By “X” we don’t mean “formerly Twitter” — everybody has been writing “X (formerly Twitter)” so I thought I would do the opposite. In this case you’re welcome to fill in whatever you wish for X. Salespeople often use the phrase to help sell […] Read more


Just two per cent of the total companies in the S&P 500 index now represent 32 per cent of the entire index by market value.

Economic and market outlook for 2024

If the U.S. avoids recession, Canada's will probably be shallow

It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” One of my favorite prediction quotes comes by way of the legendary baseball player, manager and philosopher, Yogi Berra. This quote, like many of his famous quips, incorporates a meaningful paradox. Following up on my previous column, the TSX ended 2023 with a total return — […] Read more

CME December 2023 live cattle with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

U.S. livestock: CME cattle ease on larger U.S. supply, weaker equities

Lean hog futures continue higher

Chicago | Reuters — Chicago Mercantile Exchange cattle futures eased on Thursday, with losses in equities and bigger-than-expected U.S. livestock supplies dragging down the markets. Traders kept an eye on Wall Street as weakness in stocks and concerns about the economy can limit consumer demand for pricey beef, analysts said. Stocks closed lower amid signs […] Read more