This is the first of a three-part series brought to you by Glacier FarmMedia’s MarketsFarm.
Farmers are no strangers to uncertainty. Weather extremes, shifting global demand and unpredictable markets have always been part of the business. Even so, the uncertainty in the current environment feels unprecedented. A combination of macroeconomic instability, geopolitical risks and potential policy shifts — including the threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods — creates an environment in which acting impulsively could be catastrophic. A plan is essential.
Although circumstances and risk tolerance vary, the most successful farmers will not be those who guess correctly about the future but those who develop flexible, resilient strategies that allow them to adapt.
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Predictions are overrated
Market observers and experts, some self-anointed, gamble with bold predictions every day. They forecast which team will win a hockey game, which stock to buy and even what the weather will be like months from now. Crop prices, exchange rates and economic conditions are all part of a never-ending guessing game. History shows that even the best-informed forecasts often miss the mark.
Consider the grain market shocks of the past few years:
• The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains in ways no one anticipated, sending markets on a wild rollercoaster ride. At times in the spring of 2020, it seemed things had changed forever. Until they hadn’t.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused an immediate spike in grain and fertilizer prices, but few predicted how quickly most markets would adjust.
• The 2023 drought in North America reduced yields in some areas, but bumper crops elsewhere prevented the extreme price surges some pundits had promised.
If these examples tell us anything, it’s that even the most respected observers struggle to predict how global events will unfold. So how can we be certain about what happens next in 2025? Can we confidently say how the tariff threat will play out? Could certain crops or qualities be more affected than others? Or will the worst outcomes be avoided? The reality is that no one knows for sure. That’s why preparation, rather than prognostication, is the only reliable strategy.
Billionaire stock market investor Howard Marks put it simply: “You can’t predict, but you can prepare.” The same principle applies to farming. Rather than betting on a single scenario, farmers need to build businesses that can withstand a range of outcomes.
Operating without a plan is dangerous
When the marketplace is shifting rapidly and unpredictably, the failure to have a marketing plan can lead to increased stress, indecision and emotional decision-making — often resulting in costly mistakes. Farmers may hold grain too long, waiting for a market rebound that never comes. Alternately, there is the threat of panic-selling at a low point in response to short-term volatility or unsettling media headlines. Snap decisions fuelled by fear or anxiety may provide temporary relief because of the sense something is done. In hindsight, that “something” often erodes farm profitability.
A well-structured marketing plan is invaluable
Having a plan for marketing your grain does not guarantee strong financial results. There are still factors in the markets outside your control that can lead to a negative outcome. However, a thorough plan tilts the odds in your favour. It increases the likelihood of a positive outcome by outlining sales timing and risk management tools. A strong plan provides structure and discipline, favouring decisions that align with sound farm business goals rather than speculation.
The aim is not to predict the highest price or specific market outcomes. Instead, the idea is to secure attractive average prices over time, while also allowing a good night’s sleep. Marketing strategies should not be based solely on price predictions. Instead, they may focus on:
• Incremental selling: Avoiding the temptation to sell too much or too little at any one time. Selling in increments allows farmers to manage risk more effectively by spreading out sales, capturing different price levels and reducing exposure to market swings.
• Use of pricing tools: Futures, options and basis contracts can help lock in margins while leaving room for opportunity.
Next week’s article will go into detail about these ideas and more, as we discuss implementing a plan. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s time to dig a little deeper into how to construct a plan, especially if you’re not sure where to begin or expect resistance to change from others on your farm marketing team.
Learning from trusted voices
No one has all the answers, but experienced farmers and advisers have valuable insights to share. Seek out a trusted person who has deep knowledge of farm markets and planning, such as an older family member, a friend or a farm marketing advisor. He or she can provide fresh perspectives and practical advice.
Most people are happy to share their wisdom if you ask and explain that you’re working to implement a robust farm marketing plan. A conversation over coffee could lead to a useful idea or a novel way of thinking about balancing risk and reward. Farmers who have been through past market cycles can offer firsthand lessons about what worked — and what did not. This can be invaluable in the initial stages of formulating a plan tailored to your operation.
Overcoming resistance to change
If you make decisions with someone, whether a family member or business partner, you may find that one of the biggest challenges is not the markets but overcoming a reluctance to change. It’s human nature to stick with what feels comfortable, even when circumstances demand adaptation.
One way to open the door to discussion and overcome defensiveness is to ask your partner:
“On a scale of one to 10, how would you rate our current crop marketing plan in this environment?”
This approach comes from the sales book The Liquid Fire by Sean Luce but applies to farm management as well. According to the book, the most common answer is seven, which naturally leads to a follow-up question:
“Why not eight or nine?”
This question forces the person to consider why they did not rate the current plan higher, creating an opening to dig deeper and address potential weaknesses. Instead of directly challenging a partner’s approach, this method encourages self-reflection and a constructive conversation about improvements.
Remember, it is not always the strongest or the most intelligent who survive, but those who can evolve under shifting conditions.
Get ready to take another step
Next week’s edition of Grainews will feature a follow-up article focused specifically on how to implement a plan for your grain sales. We’ll deliver a closer look at incremental selling, pricing tools and strategies to balance risk and opportunity in today’s volatile market.
