MarketsFarm — Wheat ending stocks in the United States and around the world may be tighter than earlier thought, according to the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture released Dec. 8.
The government agency lowered its call for 2023/24 U.S. wheat carryout to 659 million bushels, which would be down from the November estimate of 684 million bushels and well below average trade estimates that had been closer to unchanged. However, that would still be well above the 582-million-bushel carryout reported in 2022/23.
Projected world wheat ending stocks were also below average trade guesses and the November estimate, at 258.2 million tonnes.
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USDA attachés forecast some changes in China’s oilseeds, cereals
As China heads into the 2026/27 marketing year, the United States Department of Agriculture attachés in Beijing projected a few minor to moderate changes in the country’s soybean, canola, corn and wheat crops.
U.S. soybean ending stocks were left unchanged at 245 million bushels, with the world carryout at 114.2 million tonnes only down slightly from the November estimate of 114.4 million tonnes. The USDA left its estimate for Argentina’s soybean crop unchanged at 48 million tonnes, but lowered its Brazilian forecast to 161 million tonnes, from 163 million.
The U.S. corn carryout was lowered to 2.131 billion bushels, from 2.156 billion in November, which was below average trade guesses and somewhat supportive for prices. However, the world corn carryout was raised to 315.2 million tonnes – which was well above trade guesses calling for a slight drop from the 315.0 million tonnes predicted in November.
Corn production in Argentina and Brazil were left unchanged from the past report at 55 million and 129 million tonnes respectively.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor/analyst with MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
