MarketsFarm — There were two notable surprises in the latest supply and demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, according to Ryan Ettner, trader with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.
One was USDA having maintained its carryout for corn; the other was the carryover for wheat being a little larger than what the markets anticipated.
In the April 2022 edition of its world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE), released Friday, USDA kept ending stocks for corn at 1.44 billion bushels, while the average trade guess was lower at 1.415 billion.
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The department also upped wheat ending stocks to 678 million bushels for a 3.8 per cent increase from its March report. The average trade guess called for 656 million bushels.
Ettner said the carryover for soybeans was the “only friendly number” for the markets. Prior to the April report, the trade widely expected soybean ending stocks to shrink, with the average pegged at 262 million bushels. The report came in at 260 million for a 5.3 per cent decline from March.
Despite the bearish nature of the wheat and corn ending stocks, the prices for those commodities’ futures, as well as for soybeans, moved upward following the report’s release.
“That attracted buying anyways even though the report was a little bit disappointing,” he said.
“But it doesn’t matter. We’re not finding anyone willing to sell, even with poor news from the USDA,” he said, noting that light volumes opened the door to significant price movement.
Table 1. Projected U.S. ending stocks from USDA’s April WASDE, in billions of bushels.
| Crop | March ’22. . | April ’22. . | Diff (+/- per cent) |
| Wheat | 0.653 | 0.678 | +3.8 |
| Corn | 1.440 | 1.440 | 0.0 |
| Soybeans. . | 0.285 | 0.260 | -5.3 |
Table 2. Projected global ending stocks from USDA’s April WASDE, in millions of tonnes.
| Crop | March ’22. . | April ’22. . | Diff (+/- per cent) |
| Wheat | 203.11 | 200.10 | -1.5 |
| Corn | 199.90 | 197.00 | -1.5 |
| Soybeans. . | 158.63 | 155.29 | -2.1 |
