CNS Canada –– The canola industry will pay closer attention than usual to the upcoming Statistics Canada report on stocks as of March 31, as a smaller canola acreage figure is causing worries about tight supplies going forward.
StatsCan is scheduled to release its report on Wednesday.
“Because of that tighter acreage, the stocks number will be watched pretty closely this week,” said Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.
On April 23, Statistics Canada pegged 2015-16 Canadian canola acreage at 19.4 million acres, smaller than the 20 million acres some industry members believe is needed to fulfill demand.
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The report will also be important for canola because supplies in Canada aren’t “overwhelmingly large,” Ball said, adding “the stocks reports are always fairly important as a gauge to whether our numbers are in line or not.”
General expectations call for canola stocks to be around 7.1 to 7.8 million tonnes, down from 8.6 million on March 31 last year.
According to Jerry Klassen, manager of Swiss-based GAP Grains and Products, expectations call for a tighter canola figure as both the crush and export paces have been ahead of last year.
All wheat stocks (spring, winter, durum) are generally pegged in the 17.2 million- to 18.7 million-tonne area, from 21.9 million tonnes at the same time in 2014.
“We had a fairly good export program for wheat and there’s been a lot more wheat fed domestically compared to last year because of the poorer quality crop,” said Klassen. “So, I think that’s having an effect on the stocks, and obviously so is the lower production.”
The stocks figure for barley will also be watched closely in the report, as the carryout is rather tight and some people are “anxious to see how much feed was used domestically,” Klassen added.
Though the stocks report is important for determining the supply and demand situation for Canada’s major crops, the effects on markets and prices aren’t likely to be long lasting.
“Whatever the numbers are, people will look at them for a second and then continue (focusing) on what spring weather will be,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.
— Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.
