The ongoing diplomatic row between Canada and India may not have much of an effect on Canadian lentil exports to the country, according to a trader.
Jordan Fehr of Simpson Seeds Inc. in Moose Jaw, Sask. called India’s trade policies “open-close”, where import quotas are set and certain markets would be closed for months afterwards, adding that they haven’t been predictable in nearly a decade.
“But (India) has been very unstable even when they are in for a product. Our market was already on edge about India and I don’t think that really changes much because no one really know whether or not (India) will come to the table or not,” Fehr said.
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“In the end, when people need to eat, they have to eat. If they can’t find pigeon peas, then they’ll find green lentils to replace them and those are going to come from either Canada or Russia.”
Fehr added that Russia’s green lentil production may not be enough to satisfy India’s demand, still leaving Canada as a potential trading partner.
As of Oct. 11, lentil prices have increased by 1.5 to three Canadian cents per pound over the past week, and three to 12 cents over the past month, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. However, they won’t be as high as those from one year earlier.
Mid-summer heat damaged some lentil crops and reduced production and quality, resulting in most lentils being rated at #2 grade. However, Fehr attributed the current price increases to farmers holding onto their crop rather than selling.
“Even though our crop is probably 30 per cent more than last year, the pipeline was empty going into harvest. So almost all buyers across the globe needed to buy something just to catch up where they usually are and then they needed to buy their new crop needs,” Fehr said.
“With increased demand and early shipments to India, I wouldn’t be surprised if our green lentil tank is empty come May or June this year.”
Canada exported 1.68 million tonnes of lentils in 2023/24, with India the largest destination accounting for 33 per cent of the total, according to Statistics Canada data.
