Prairie Wheat Weekly: Strong gains for red spring varieties

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Spring wheat cash prices posted double-digit increases for the week ended Oct. 3, while durum bids were up much more modestly.

The main driver in wheat’s gains was the ongoing drought in Russia and other areas of the Black Sea region with expectations of reduced production.

Additional support came from a weaker Canadian dollar, which at 73.86 U.S. cents lost more than a third of a cent.

As the Prairie harvest begins to wind down, most of the region’s wheat has come off with reduced pressure on prices.

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Alberta crop conditions improve: report

Varied precipitation and warm temperatures were generally beneficial for crop development across Alberta during the week ended July 8, according to the latest provincial crop report released July 11.

Average CWRS (13.5%) prices increased C$15.20 to C$19.70 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Those prices ranged from about C$274.90 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$301.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$37.50 to C$63.70 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.7386), CWRS bids ranged from US$203.10 to US$222.50 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$15.00 to US$34.40 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$11.10 to C$25.40 below the futures.

Average CPRS (11.5%) wheat advanced C$17.40 to $19.50 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$247.90 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$273.90 per tonne in southern Alberta.

Average CWAD prices gained C$0.30 to C$4.50 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$301.10 per tonne in northwestern Saskatchewan to C$317.10 per tonne in southern Alberta.

The December spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$6.4625 per bushel on Oct. 3, jumping 34.75 cents on the week.

The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The December Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$6,1150 per bushel on Oct. 3, rising 32.50 cents from a week ago.

The December Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$6.0350 per bushel on Oct. 3, increasing 19.25 cents.

About the author

Glen Hallick - MarketsFarm

Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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