Larger Canadian canola and wheat ending stocks expected

Glacier FarmMedia — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its 2025/26 carryout forecasts for canola and wheat in its latest supply/demand update released Dec. 17. Ending stocks for most other crops were also higher as AAFC factored in updated production estimates from Statistics Canada reported earlier in the month, with only soybeans and corn revised down from November.

• · Estimated wheat ending stocks grew to 7.500 million tonnes, from 5.100 million in November and 4.112 million in 2024/25. Wheat exports for 2025/26 were raised to 28.350 million, from 27.700 million in November but still below the 29.220 million that moved in 2024/25.

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• · Projected canola ending stocks for 2025/26 were up by 450,000 tonnes from November, at 2.950 million tonnes. That compares with 1.597 million in 2024/25. Canola exports at 8.000 million tonnes compare with 7.000 million in November. However, that would still be down by 1.3 million tonnes on the year. Domestic canola usage was forecast to hit a record 12.000 million tonnes.
• · The barley carryout was raised to 1.5 million tonnes, from 1.000 million in November and 1.249 million tonnes the previous year.
• · Ending stocks for peas and lentils were both forecast to be roughly three-times the carryout from 2024/25 at 1.568 million tonnes and 1.535 million tonnes respectively.
• · Downward revisions to soybean and corn production by Statistics Canada led to reductions in the ending stocks forecasts from AAFC. Soybean ending stocks were down by 100,000 tonnes from November at 400,000 tonnes, while the corn carryout was cut by 300,000 tonnes at 1.600 million tonnes.

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December estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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