Glacier FarmMedia—Despite declines in production and exports during the current year, canary seed – also known by its Spanish name “alpiste” – is looking to bounce back in 2024-25.
David Nobbs, chair of the Canary Seed Development Commission of Saskatchewan and pulse merchant for Purely Canada Foods, said exports are on pace for 110,000 to 120,000 tonnes in 2023-24, compared to 150,000 to 160,000 in a typical year. Statistics Canada (StatCan) projected 125,000 tonnes of exports for 2023-24, compared to 147,000 the previous year.
He cited reasons for the slowdown such as competition from other countries and a lack of demand in Europe, but also a five-cent per pound discount for new crop compared to old crop, United States millet prices at 10 U.S. cents per pound and a Brazilian ban on Canadian canary seed due to phytosanitary concerns.
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“It’s not really one thing. It was a number of things that impacted us,” Nobbs said.
While these obstacles may doom the outlook for any crop, things are looking up for the Canadian canary seed market, according to Nobbs. Prices for new crop have stayed the same compared to last year – at around 36 cents/lb. – and hasn’t come down compared to other major crops.
“If you’re an eastern Saskatchewan grower, I think canary seed makes a lot of sense this year compared to last year. I think acres are going to increase. I don’t think acres are going to be huge, but acres are going to increase,” Nobbs said, estimating between 300,000 and 330,000 seeded acres, more than Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) forecast of 291,600.
Nobbs also doesn’t trust the accuracy of StatCan’s 2023-24 acreage numbers, which showed nearly 257,000 for canary seed.
“Crop insurance had seen a rise of acres in Saskatchewan (in 2023-24) whereas StatCan showed a drop,” he said. “I think (acres) will be at 300,000, close to last year. But the increase is probably 10 per cent higher at 330,000.”
Nobbs said he is seeing a lack of contracting, which he interprets as growers anticipating higher prices. Last fall, canary seed prices rose to 46 cents/lb. before settling lower. He touted canary seed as a high-priced crop that grows well under wet conditions with few Fusarium concerns.
“Generally, you’re going to have 50 per cent of the volume in a wheat crop, but you have double the price or even higher,” Nobbs explained. “I view the durum market looking pretty weak this year and if I could grow all canary seed, I would. Whether or not growers will (drop durum completely), I don’t know.”
A normal-sized canary seed crop would likely produce prices in a range of 32 to 38 cents/lb., according to Nobbs, adding that a larger-than-normal crop could be worth 30 cents/lb. while a smaller-than-normal crop could fetch 40 cents/lb.
“The outcome is going to be important,” he said. “Some of the other things may not fix themselves. I don’t know what Colorado or European millet values are going to be. I think what hurt us a lot are millet prices. Even flax is cheaper as a bird food … There’s a lot of stuff to happen between now and next harvest. I guess we’ll wait and see.”
—Adam Peleshaty reports for MarketsFarm from Stonewall, Man.
