Paris | Reuters — Commodity firm Argus lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop after cutting its harvested area projection, but the outlook remained the highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and above the four-year average.
The 2026 wheat harvest in the Black Sea country, one of the world’s biggest grain exporters, is expected to be 23.5 million metric tons, down from 23.9 million tons in December. It exceeds the four-year average of 22 million tons.
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Argus cut Ukraine’s harvested area projection to 5.1 million hectares from 5.2 million, while keeping the yield forecast to 4.6 tons per hectare, slightly above the 2025/26 level of 4.55 tons per hectare and the five-year average of 4.42.
Local consultancy APK-Inform also cut its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest on Monday, which is now expected to be 19.9 million tons.
Winter conditions were marked by cold snaps and extremely low temperatures, Argus noted, though warmer weather from February and fertilizer use improved the conditions for winter wheat.
Argus said its crop forecasts, which were released to clients last week, could be revised again in June following updates on 2026/27 planted areas from Ukraine’s State Statistics Service.
1 hectare = 2.47 acres
— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide
