Glacier FarmMedia — Soybean production in Argentina is expected to nudge up to 49 million tonnes in 2026-27, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Buenos Aires forecasted. However, soybean ending stocks are projected to jump by three million tonnes.
The attaché estimated harvested area in 2026-27 is to increase to 17.1 million hectares from 15.9 million, as more marginal land will be seeded with soybeans. That’s to see yields slip to 2.87 tonnes per hectare from 3.02 tonnes in 2025-26.
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The Buenos Aires desk cautioned that with fertilizer prices spiking by more than US$200 per tonne due to the Middle East war, farmers could alter their planting intentions before hitting the fields. Even more soybeans could be seeded at the expense of more nitrogen-hungry corn.
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The attaché noted Argentina produces two soybean crops per year. About 70 per cent of the country’s soybeans come from the “soja primera,” or first soy crop, which is harvested during April and May. The balance is the “soja de segunda” or second crop of soybeans, which follows Argentina’s winter wheat harvest and combined from May into early July.
Reduced imports, higher ending stocks
Given that Argentina’s soybean imports increased to seven million tonnes in 2025-26, the attaché said there’s likely to be a return to more normal levels. With that, they lowered the country’s bean imports to 6.5 million tonnes for 2026-27.
As for ending stocks, they were forecast to continue to rise sharply. The attaché placed the carryover for 2024-25 at 3.65 million tonnes, and those for 2025-26 were upped to 5.15 million. While total domestic consumption is to slip by one million tonnes at 42 million in 2026-27, the carryout is to jump to 8.15 million.
Soybean crush
Although Argentina is expected to see a decline in its soybean crush, the Buenos Aires desk said the country is to remain the world’s top exporter of soymeal and soyoil. The attaché noted that Argentina’s crush capacity is likely to run at 63 per cent in the coming crop year, down from 86 per cent.
The 2026-27 crush is projected to produce 31.92 million tonnes of soymeal and 8.38 million of soyoil, with both to be slightly lower than in 2025-26.
The exports are expected to hold in 2026-27 with soymeal at 30 million tonnes and soyoil at 6.3 million.
Canada now a customer
While China will remain the top export destination, the attaché said that Canada is the newest customer with soyoil heading to a refinery in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Total domestic consumption was pegged at 2.7 million tonnes for soybeans, up 200,000 from the previous year, and soyoil is trimmed to 2.25 million tonnes from 2.3 million.
Ending stocks are projected to fall in 2026-27, with soymeal at 2.24 million tonnes from 3.02 million and soyoil declining to 102,000 tonnes from 262,000.
