That caution is well advised going into this growing season given the state of subsoil moisture across the Prairies.
That’s the word from Bruce Burnett of MarketsFarm, which provides expert analysis on the markets and crops grown in Western Canada. As MarketFarm’s director of markets and weather information, Burnett specializes in assessing weather conditions and their effects on global ag markets.
I spoke to him at the tail end of April to get his thoughts on how the weather this past winter and early spring might affect farmers’ marketing plans in coming months. Burnett described conditions as “a mixed bag” and said the bottom line is little had changed with the soil moisture deficit situation in many parts of the Prairies.
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“I think the concerns remain much the same that we’ve had for the past couple of years, which is that subsoil moisture levels in the Prairies in general are not great. There is a pretty big east-west divide in terms of subsoil moisture. Manitoba and eastern areas of Saskatchewan have better subsoil moisture, whereas the western areas of the Prairies are still dry on the subsoil moisture side,” Burnett said.
“We’ve had some decent snow in parts of those western areas, and I want to stress ‘parts’ because everybody will say, ‘Well, I didn’t get any snow.’ But, basically, some snows in those areas should help farmers out with topsoil moisture to begin the crop year, but it certainly doesn’t change that subsoil moisture deficit we currently have. So that’s a concern, I think, in the western growing areas.”
Burnett noted some longer-term weather forecasting models are pointing to drier conditions for the Prairies for this spring and the first part of summer.
“The models right now are indicating there is a tendency to dryness for the May, June and July period,” he said. “Initially, this is likely going to be good for getting the crops planted on time, because we’ve had a late start to spring, but we just hope it doesn’t stick around for anything much longer than the first or second week in June.
“As we get into the growing season, if we do get some dry periods, that’s probably going to start to stress those crops a lot earlier than what you would normally expect if we had good subsoil moisture conditions.”
Dry conditions, when coupled with insufficient subsoil moisture levels, can cause yields to drop, which in turn affects the amount of crop farmers are able to deliver to their grain and oilseed buyers come harvest time. This is why Burnett is urging producers making marketing decisions during the growing season to be careful not to overcommit with new crop sales and risk being caught short.
“I think this speaks to maybe being a little cautious in terms of forward selling this year,” he said.
“Having said that, in some areas of the Prairies, especially those with adequate subsoil moisture, farmers can probably be a little bit more confident. That would be more of the northern and eastern areas of the Prairies, but it does depend on your individual farm situation and where you are in terms of soil moisture.”
Burnett said looking at the longer “big picture” view of the weather, the cooler La Niña system that has helped shape weather patterns in Western Canada the past few years is shifting to a warmer El Niño system, which could possibly result in more precipitation down the road.
“It looks like by the time we finish planting we could be in a full-fledged El Niño. This doesn’t really change the outlook in terms of the moisture we receive during the growing season, at least in the summertime, as it has more of an impact on the weather and precipitation that we’ll get next winter,” said Burnett.
“That’s a positive thing to look forward to, but for right now, there’s no big tendency from that particular signal, at least in terms of how this growing season is going to turn out.”
If you’re interested in hearing more expert analysis from Burnett and the rest of the MarketsFarm team, I recommend you check out their website. You’ll also find the latest market news and regular market reports, which can help guide your grain marketing decisions in the coming months.
Have a great marketing year,
Mark
