Global pandemic or not, I just hope the shelves at either of the Canadian Tire stores within 10 minutes of my house do not go bare over the coming weeks. There are just a lot of things, like perhaps a 250-piece wrench set that complements the 125-piece screwdriver set I bought last year that I could really use. If these essentials, coming from China, or wherever, don’t get here in time for my next DIY project, I could be frantic. (Wait, I thought we were mad at China? Okay, maybe not.)
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There are a lot of things about the COVID-19 pandemic that have surprised me over the past 20 months. First, that we’re still in a fairly tight lockdown mode after 20 months. For some reason I thought this little health crisis would be all wrapped up after about six months, but apparently not. In fact, in some respects —vaccines or not — it’s almost as bad now as it has ever been. Hopefully the tide is turning.
But secondly, I certainly didn’t expect this knot in the global supply chain. It was sort of cute when I heard talk a few months ago there was a delay in selling new cars because they couldn’t get computer components. I wasn’t looking for a new vehicle, so it was no hardship to me. But over the recent months, and most days now, there are warnings that just about every commodity that gets shipped could be delayed. And delayed or not the price will increase regardless.
I’m reading reports where loaded container ships are backed up at major ports waiting their turn to get unloaded. As of mid-October, news reports said, for example, there were at least 70 container ships stacked up at the Port of Los Angeles waiting to unload.
And how big are these container ships? Here are a few facts that surprised me:
- There are about 5,461 container ships in the world that have a combined capacity to carry about 24.6 million TEU containers (containers can either be 20 or 40 feet in length but are measured as being the equivalent of 20-foot containers — twenty-foot equivalent unit or TEU).
- The capacity of ships has doubled in recent years, with the largest ships able to carry about 24,000 TEU containers. (Now that is a lot of toasters and deep fryers just on one ship.)
- A standard container can hold about 24,900 tin cans or about 48,000 bananas. A 40-foot container may hold more than 12,000 shoeboxes.
- The container load on these bigger ships would fill the equivalent of a freight train 44 miles long. (Can you imagine being at a rail crossing waiting for that baby to pass?)
- The engine to power one of these large ships is equivalent in size to a six-storey building. (I wouldn’t want to be shovelling coal into the furnace box on that boiler).
- Well over one billion tonnes is carried internationally in containers. About half of seaborne trade in refrigerated products is now carried by container ships in “reefer” containers.
These ships obviously have capacity but if they can get it delivered to a port and then the port can’t get it distributed, then there is a problem.
In a recent news report, a division of the investment firm Moody’s says the worst is yet to come.
Computer chip shortages. Epic port congestion. And a serious lack of truck drivers. The world’s delicate supply chains are under extreme stress. The supply chain nightmare is jacking up prices for consumers and slowing the global economic recovery. Unfortunately, Moody’s Analytics warns supply chain disruptions “will get worse before they get better.”
“As the global economic recovery continues to gather steam, what is increasingly apparent is how it will be stymied by supply-chain disruptions that are now showing up at every corner,” says the Moody’s report.
I just know it is not sounding good for my 250-piece wrench set. Truth is that I could probably live without it. The sad thing is there are probably a lot of truly “essential” products that will be held up because ports, trucks and trains just can’t keep up with the distribution. It will get delivered eventually, but hopefully it doesn’t affect too many life-saving materials that could affect human life as well as commercial livelihood.
