GLACIER FARM MEDIA — India is likely going to increase its import duty on lentils, says an analyst.
Gaurav Jain, analyst with AgPulse Analytica, expects the Government of India to hike the existing 10 per cent duty to 30 per cent as of April 1, 2026.
The government has repeatedly told farmers that it will purchase up to 100 per cent of their 2026 lentils, pigeon peas and black matpe at its minimum support prices (MSP).
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“If there is a need, they will buy all of it,” said Jain.
The government is already actively buying pigeon peas and black matpe and will soon be acquiring lentils.
Bridging import, MSP price gap
The MSP for lentils equates to US$771 per tonne, while imported lentils are selling for about $600 per tonne after the 10 per cent duty.
That means the government would be losing about $171 per tonne if it purchased lentils from farmers at the MSP and then sold the crop at the prevailing market price.
That’s why Jain and many other industry officials in India believe the government will increase the duty to 30 per cent after the existing 10 per cent duty expires on March 31.
WHY IT MATTERS: India is the top market for Canadian lentils.
That would increase the price of imported product to about $710 per tonne after additional expenses to clear customs and transport the product from port to inland markets.
That would still be below the MSP, but many Indian farmers would choose to sell to private traders because it’s less hassle.
That would ease the burden on the government while raising prices for farmers.
Exporters rush shipments ahead of deadline
Jain thinks a duty hike is inevitable.
“That is why you see a lot of shipments happening in January and early February,” he said.
Lineups of ships destined for India have been strong since December in Canada and Australia as exporters try to take advantage of the 10 per cent duty while it’s still in place.
He anticipates movement to slow down substantially in March.
Exports to Pakistan, Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates are also expected to subside in late February and March because Ramadan demand from those markets is already fed and they’re entering a post-Ramadan lull.
High yield forecasts soften prices
AgPulse is forecasting 1.78 million tonnes of Indian lentil production as the crop approaches harvest. That would be up from the five-year average of 1.51 million tonnes.
Stat Publishing is more optimistic, forecasting 1.99 million tonnes of production.
Either way, it’s expected to be a big crop, and that’s pushing down lentil prices in the country.
Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, said with red lentil prices at multi-year lows, he too worries the government will increase import tariffs beyond the existing 10 per cent.
He told farmers attending the Saskatchewan Pulse Growers’ recent Swift Current winter pulse meeting that anything above 30 per cent would not be good for export prospects.
Opportunity rises for green lentil exports
The good news out of India? The country’s short pigeon pea crop, which is sending prices higher and creating opportunity for imported green lentils.
Prices for green lentils have been significantly higher than pigeon peas in India since late 2023.
“Now that we have this thing flipped around, I think we’re going to open the door for more movement of green lentils,” said Penner.
Jain is forecasting India will import one million tonnes of all types of lentils in 2026-27, down from 1.25 million tonnes this crop year, 1.22 million tonnes the previous year and 1.68 million tonnes in 2023-24.
Export outlook dims
This year’s big crop, the anticipated increase in import duties and good carryover from previous years, will all combine to limit imports.
Jain thinks Kazakhstan will grow more lentils in 2026-27, while Turkey’s production should rebound, which could also limit Canada’s exports in the coming year.
“If Canada has an average crop, it may find it difficult to market,” he said.
The Indian government has still not made a decision on lentil tariffs as of Feb. 19.
Lentil market outlook: India import duty hike
| KEY METRIC | DETAILS AND PROJECTIONS |
Current duty |
10% (expires March 31, 2026) |
| Projected duty | 30% (expected April 1, 2026) |
| India’s 2026 production |
AgPulse: 1.78 million tonnes | Stat Publishing: 1.99 million tonnes |
| Lentil import forecast |
1 million tonnes for 2026-27 (down from 1.25 million in 2025-26) |
| Price support (MSP) | US$771 per tonne |
| Import price gap |
Current imports ($600/tonne) are $171/tonne cheaper than domestic support prices |
