By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 12 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was sharply higher on Thursday, as a rally in the Chicago soy complex provided spillover support.
Updated supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture provided the catalyst for the gains in soybeans, with average U.S. yields at the lower end of trade expectations.
Chart-based buying contributed to the turn higher in canola, as prices bounced off nearby lows amid ideas the recent losses were looking overdone.
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Weakness in the Canadian dollar, which was down by roughly half a cent relative to its U.S. counterpart, was also supportive.
There were an estimated 55,258 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 43,338 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 40,880 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied sharply higher on Thursday, seeing a bullish reaction to updated supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture.
The USDA lowered its average soybean yield estimate for the 2023 crop to 49.6 bushels per acre. That was down by a half bushel from September and at the lower end of trade expectations. Total production was down by 31 million bushels from September, at 4.104 billion bushels, but the carryout was left unchanged as 220 million bushels as a reduction in expected exports was balanced by an increase in the domestic crush.
World soybean ending stocks for the marketing year were down by 3.6 million tonnes from the September estimate, at 115.6 million tonnes.
The USDA announced flash sales of 295,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.
CORN futures were also underpinned by the USDA data. Average U.S. corn yields were pegged at 173 bushels per acre, which was down by 0.8 bushels per acre from September and at the lower end of expectations.
Total U.S. corn production, at 15.064 billion bushels, was down by 70 million from the last estimate. The expected carryout was lowered by 110 million bushels, to 2.111 billion.
The world corn carryout tightened by 1.6 million tonnes, to 312.4 million tonnes.
The USDA announced private export sales of 124,545 tonnes of corn to Guatemala this morning.
WHEAT was stronger with tighter world supplies, along with the gains in soybeans and corn, providing support.
U.S. wheat production was pegged at 1.812 billion bushels, which was up from the September report but in line with the latest small grains estimate. U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised to 670 million bushels, which was up by 55 million from the last estimate.
World wheat production was cut by nearly four million tonnes, to at 783.4 million, with the carryout down by half a million tonnes at 258.1 million tonnes.
