North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola posts solid gains

Published: August 9, 2022

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Aug. 9 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market settled with solid gains on Tuesday after trading to both sides of unchanged in choppy activity.

Gains in the Chicago soy complex and other outside markets, including European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, accounted for some spillover buying interest in the Canadian oilseed.

Supportive chart-signals also underpinned the market as the November contract held above the 20-day moving average.

Relatively favourable growing conditions across most of Western Canada tempered the upside to some extent. However, crop development remains delayed in the eastern Prairies and many fields will need a longer-than-normal frost-free window to reach harvest.

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About 16,388 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 19,723 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,706 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Tuesday, underpinned by declining crop ratings.

The United States soybean crop declined one point in the good-to-excellent category, coming in at 59 per cent, according to the weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture report.

Midwestern forecasts show little chance of widespread rains over the next two weeks, with average to above average temperatures, which could lead to further downgrades in upcoming reports.

Positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA supply/demand report remained a feature.

Trade estimates on U.S. soybean yields range from about 50 to 52 bushels per acre, with the USDA currently at 51.5 bu/ac.

CORN was also underpinned by declining crop ratings and the Corn Belt weather forecasts.

The U.S. corn crop was estimated at 58 per cent good-to-excellent as of this past Sunday, which was down three points from the previous week.

The USDA announced a flash sale of 133,000 tonnes of corn to China this morning.

Ahead of Friday’s report, U.S. corn yields are estimated at anywhere from 173 to 177 bushels per acre.

WHEAT futures were mostly higher, with the largest gains in Minneapolis spring wheat.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest was 86 per cent complete in the latest weekly report, five points behind normal for this time of year.

The spring wheat harvest was also behind, at 9 per cent done. In North Dakota the spring wheat harvest would normally be 13 per cent finished by the first week of August, but it had yet to even start this year.

Spring wheat still in the field was rated 64 per cent good-to-excellent, which was down six points on the week.

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