Cereal crops in Western Canada will be influenced by climate change in the coming years — but the impact will depend on both the crop and the primary area of Western Canada where it’s grown.
Barley and oats are grown primarily in the cooler regions of the Prairies and will benefit from a longer growing season. Durum, meanwhile, is primarily grown in the southern Prairies and growers will be more concerned about increased temperatures during that region’s growing season. Spring wheat, grown all across the Prairie region, will benefit from the extended growing season in northern regions. Winter wheat production may be challenged by a lack of protective snow cover in the winter. All these factors will need to be examined in looking at the impact of climate change on cereals.
Many studies have examined changes to the climate in Western Canada over the past couple of decades. A review of the research on climate change in the agricultural growing regions in Canada was conducted by Mapfumo et al. in the Canadian Journal in Plant Science in 2023. The authors examined the research to date of the parameters that are important to producing crops.
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Of the factors examined in the review, the three most critical parameters for cereal production are growing season precipitation; growing season length; and air temperatures during the growing season. The research indicates changes in all three parameters have occurred over the past 100 years.
Every farmer knows precipitation is the critical element for producing crops on the Prairies. The weather during the past two growing seasons certainly proves the point that “rain makes grain.” Research indicates growing season precipitation has increased since 1900. In Alberta’s agricultural region, it has increased by 18 mm over the period beginning in 1900. In another study, Prairie rainfall was found to have increased by 39.2 mm over the growing season in the period from 1956 to 1995. The increase in precipitation is welcome news for cereal crop production in the coming years. Wheat, barley, oats and durum will benefit from additional moisture in the growing season.
An increase in moisture during the growing season, though, would increase disease pressure in cereal crops. Common cereal crop diseases will be enhanced by the increased moisture. Insect pressure should also increase under warmer, wetter growing conditions and increased temperatures.
Growing season length is the second most critical factor in producing crops in Western Canada. This is particularly true for wheat crops, but barley and oats will also see yield increases from an extended growing season. The northern growing regions will see the largest benefit of a longer growing season. Western Canada has seen its growing season increase by between three and 12 days, using data from 1920 to 2020. Frost dates have also changed in Western Canada, with the median spring frost earlier by 11.1 days and fall frost dates later by 9.4 days. A longer growing season also adds yield potential for cereal crops. The extension of the frost dates in the fall should also improve crop quality. This would be critical for barley and oat crops grown in the northern grain belt but would also benefit wheat crops in the north.
The heat experienced over the past two growing seasons has certainly brought temperatures to the forefront, in terms of risk to crops. The maximum air temperatures have been increasing by between 2.4 and 3.6 C during the period from 1950 to 2010. The increase in maximum temperatures is probably the largest concern for cereal production in the future. Although the temperatures during the growing season are expected to be higher than current levels, wheat, barley and oat crops grown in northern regions should not see significant yield reductions. Heat will be of more concern for southern wheat and durum crops, which could see more significant yield reductions from the increase in maximum temperatures.
Winter wheat production will be impacted by reductions in snow cover and snow depth in the future. Western Canada has seen a decrease of 30.7 cm of annual snowfall from 1951 to 2004. Snow depth was also lowered by four cm from 1948 to 2012. Winter wheat production on the Prairies is dependent on snow cover to protect crops from winterkill. Ironically, a warmer climate may result in increased winterkill potential.
In conclusion: climate change is expected to have a mostly positive impact on cereal production in Western Canada during the coming years. The net benefit of increased moisture and longer growing season will more than offset any negative impacts from increased disease and insect pressure. Grain quality is likely to improve in northern growing areas where the risk of frost is expected to decrease.
