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USDA makes some changes to Canadian, world crop estimates

MarketsFarm — Corn planting in Canada has been a struggle this year much like for farmers in the U.S., according to Tuesday’s world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

USDA’s May WASDE report estimated Canadian corn production at 15.4 million tonnes, but wet conditions in Eastern Canada saw a reduction to 14 million tonnes in the June report.

The total area to be harvested was predicted to be 3.459 million acres, down 10 per cent from the May report.

Total domestic consumption for Canada was revised to 13.7 million tonnes, a drop of one million to reflect an anticipated decline in feed usage.

Beginning stocks remained the same at 2.02 million tonnes, and ending stocks were lowered 18 per cent to 1.82 million tonnes.

USDA’s estimates for Canadian wheat virtually remained the same between the May and June WASDE reports. Total wheat production stayed at 34.5 million tonnes and exports were unchanged at 24 million tonnes. Total domestic use was kept at 9.5 million tonnes.

There were slight changes in beginning and ending stocks. In the June report, USDA pegged Canadian wheat beginning stocks at 4.77 million tonnes, down 100,000 from May. Ending stocks were lowered by the same amount and projected at 6.22 million tonnes.

The June WASDE raised world wheat production by 0.4 per cent to 780.83 million tonnes, as USDA forecasts larger wheat crops in India, Russia and Ukraine.

Despite Australia still being in a drought, USDA maintained that country’s wheat production at 22.5 million tonnes.

Global beginning stocks were increased by 1.59 million tonnes, to 276.57 million. Ending stocks were raised by 1.33 million tonnes to stand at 294.34 million.

Global corn production was lowered in the June report by three per cent, to slightly under 1.1 billion tonnes. The reduction is largely due to USDA lowering U.S. corn production by nine per cent to 347.49 million tonnes.

There were small increases in production estimates for Argentina, up two per cent to 50 million tonnes, and for Russia, up 3.8 per cent to 13.50 million tonnes.

For soybeans, USDA did not make any major revisions to its estimates. Global beginning stocks were altered slightly, down 380,000 tonnes at 112.8 million. Global ending stocks also had a small change, down 430,000 tonnes at 112.66 million tonnes.

As with the May report, South American powerhouses Brazil and Argentina were projected again to produce, respectively, 123 million tonnes and 53 million tonnes of soybeans.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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