Reuters — Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures neared a one-month low on Friday and posted their first weekly loss in eight weeks amid uncertainty over the scale of Chinese demand for U.S. supplies under a bilateral trade truce.
Wheat and corn futures also eased, with ample global grain supplies tempering support from brisk U.S. corn exports.
Grain traders turned their attention to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Tuesday, in which the agency will give an update on global supplies and demand.
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The USDA on Friday confirmed private sales of 462,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2025-26 marketing year, following market chatter about deals this week. In its daily reporting system, the agency has reported sales of about 2.7 million tons of U.S. soybeans to China since Oct. 30.
“We need to see those sales converted into shipments and get the bushels out of the country to get some sort of bigger, more sustained rally going,” said Matt Wiegand, commodity broker for FuturesOne.
The most-active January CBOT soybean contract ended down 14-1/4 cents at $11.05-1/4 a bushel and set its lowest price since Nov. 6 at $11.04-1/2.
Watching China’s buying
Washington and Beijing in late October struck a truce in the trade dispute that had formerly halted China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans and sent its buying to South America instead.
China’s overall purchases remain below a 12-million-tonne target referred to by senior U.S. officials, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week appeared to push back the deadline for reaching the target to end-February from end-December.
On Thursday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said U.S. trade with China probably needed to be smaller.
“A few days before the USDA’s monthly report, Chinese import potential will be closely monitored, knowing that Brazilian exports have so far largely covered the country’s needs,” Argus Media analysts said in a note.
The USDA was expected to slightly increase its outlook for 2025-26 U.S. soybean ending stocks in its monthly report, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. For wheat and corn, analysts estimated the agency would trim its forecasts for U.S. ending stocks from November, the poll showed.
CBOT wheat fell 4-1/2 cents to $5.35-3/4 a bushel in the March contract, while CBOT March corn dipped 2-1/2 cents to $4.44-3/4 a bushel.
— Reporting by Tom Polansek, Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson
