Barring any weather surprises, most of Saskatchewan outside of east-central regions can expect below-normal runoff this spring.
The province’s Water Security Agency on Tuesday released a preliminary outlook which, based on a “warmer- and drier-than-normal winter” and a resulting snowpack below normal levels, points to below-normal spring runoff.
Exceptions include parts of the east-central region, running from north of Yorkton up to Hudson Bay and west over to Nipawin, where the snowpack is “near normal.”
An area running from Yorkton west toward the north end of Last Mountain Lake, northwest of Regina, may see above-normal runoff based on current conditions, the agency added.
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For the upcoming forecast period, a large area of low pressure remains anchored off the British Columbia coast, a strong low spins over the Atlantic coast and another, weaker low lingers near Hudson Bay. Between these systems, the flow across the Prairies is largely zonal, meaning it moves west to east with little north–south movement. That pattern will help usher a few weak disturbances across the region during the next several days.
Most long-range precipitation forecasts call for near-normal precipitation across Saskatchewan for February, March and April, the agency said, but noted such long-range forecasts “are difficult to rely on.”
All those forecasts also point to above-normal temperatures for the three-month period, which suggests runoff could come earlier than usual.
Most reservoirs and dugouts went into winter at near-normal levels, the agency said, so even with below-normal runoff, surface water supplies are expected to be “adequate” this year. — AGCanada.com Network
