MarketsFarm — Rapeseed production in India has been forecast to remain quite consistent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) attaché in New Delhi.
The attaché projected rapeseed production for 2023-24 to hold at 11.5 million tonnes, the same in 2022-23. USDA’s official numbers placed India as the world’s No. 4 producer of rapeseed, behind the European Union, Canada and China. The department is scheduled to release its projections for 2023-24 in its next supply and demand estimates on May 12.
The attaché’s report was predicated on favourable reservoir water storage levels, as well as good soil moisture and sufficient usage of fertilizers. However, the El Nino that’s to form later this year could reduce rainfall amounts during India’s monsoon season. The attaché also noted excessive precipitation from January to April of this year likely reduced quality levels for crop seeded during the winter.
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The New Delhi desk forecast yields to slip slightly, from 1.278 tonnes per hectare in 2022-23 to 1.264 in 2023-24, with that leading to other small changes from year to year.
The attaché placed harvested hectares at 9.1 million in 2023-24, 100,000 more than in the previous year. The rapeseed crush is to nudge up to 10.2 million tonnes and total domestic consumption is to move from 11.42 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 11.58 million in 2023-24. Ending stocks are to dip by 80,000 tonnes at 519,000.
India’s rapeseed crush was forecast to be in a similar situation, with production to bump up to 6.1 million tonnes in 2023-24. However, exports are to slip from 1.6 million tonnes to 1.1 million, but domestic use is to hold at 4.7 million. Ending stocks are to triple to 450,000 tonnes.
The attaché estimated India’s total oilseed output is to stay at 42.5 million tonnes going into 23/24. Along with rapeseed, the country grows soybeans, peanuts, sunflowers, cottonseeds and copra (coconut).
