Paris | Reuters — Expana has raised its monthly grain production forecast for European Union crops for the 2025/26 season, projecting soft wheat output will hit a record high and barley a 17-year high.
In its latest cereal forecasts, Expana increased its estimate for EU soft wheat production this season by 0.3 million metric tons from last month’s forecast to 136.4 million tons, up 22.8 million tons from the rain-affected 2024/25 crop.
Why it matters: Bountiful global harvests are putting downward pressure on crop prices.
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Barley output was also revised 0.2 million tons higher to 56.4 million tons, up 6.2 million tons year-on-year.
For maize, Expana raised its crop estimate by 0.8 million tons to 56.5 million tons, after the harvest turned out slightly better than previously expected, though the crop remains 2.5 million tons below last season and the second lowest since 2007.
As of early October, maize (corn) harvesting was well advanced in most European production zones except Poland, where crop development is around a month behind schedule.
“The contrast between a good maize harvest in the northern half of the EU and disastrous results in the southern half looks set to become even more pronounced than it was in 2024/25,” Expana said.
Expana continues to expect that EU soft wheat exports will rebound sharply this season, but said the increase looks set to be held in check by fierce competition on international markets, especially from U.S., Australian and Argentinian origins.
“European exports, especially French exports, made a slow start to the new campaign. However, French exports have gained some momentum in recent weeks thanks to the better competitiveness of French wheat,” it said.
— Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide
