North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola rises with outside markets

Published: August 4, 2022

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Aug. 4 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Thursday, finding support from gains in outside markets.

European rapeseed and the Chicago soy complex were both up on the day, although Malaysian palm oil held steady.

Hot and dry forecasts for the United States Corn Belt were behind some of the strength in soybeans which spilled into canola.

Canadian crop conditions remain relatively favourable for the time being, but development of the canola crop is behind normal which should be keeping some weather premiums in the futures.

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About 19,370 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 28,199 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,858 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade moved higher on oversold price sentiment and end-user bargain posted solid gains Thursday, with shifting Midwestern weather forecasts and supportive chart signals behind some of the buying interest.

While there is some moisture in the forecasts for parts of the Midwest, the overall outlook remains hot and dry which gave the soy market a boost.

Weekly United States soybean export sales included net cancellations of 11,000 tonnes of old crop business and new crop sales of 410,000 tonnes. The new crop business was in line with expectations, while pre-report ideas had been for much larger old crop cancellations.

Positioning ahead of next week’s U.S. Department of Agriculture supply/demand report remained a feature.

Trade estimates on U.S. soybean yields range from about 50 to 52 bushels per acre, with the USDA currently at 51.5 bu/ac.

CORN also found support from the hot and dry Corn Belt weather.

Weekly U.S. corn export sales included 58,000 tonnes of old crop business and an additional 257,000 tonnes of new crop, which was in line with expectations.

U.S. corn yields are estimated at anywhere from 173 to 177 bushels per acre, with the USDA at 177.

WHEAT futures were higher, with chart-based buying a feature as prices held above major support levels.

Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of about 250,000 tonnes were at the lower end of expectations.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest is nearing completion, causing seasonal harvest pressure to ease up.

Next week’s USDA report will include revisions to spring wheat area in Minnesota and the Dakotas after this year’s later than normal spring seeding.

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