North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains tumble

Published: March 21, 2023

WINNIPEG — The ICE Futures canola market fell to a level unseen since June 2021.

Chicago soyoil took a large drop, but European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil were both slightly weaker. Crude oil prices were up more than US$1 per barrel on the day before the United States Federal Reserve’s meeting, which will decide on any further key interest rate hikes.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down three-tenths of a U.S. cent compared to Monday’s close.

About 34,885 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 37,828 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 19,912 of the contracts traded.

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For the first time since March 8 and 9, the May CORN contract suffered losses in consecutive sessions.

Ukraine’s ag ministry is reporting a nine million tonne cut to its 2023 grain harvest to 44.3 million, of which 21.7 million tonnes are projected for corn production.

The United States Department of Agriculture announced a large private export sale of corn to China this morning, totaling 136,000 tonnes of old crop.

Meanwhile, Texas new crop corn is 40 per cent planted, five points ahead of last year.

South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has cut one million tonnes off his Argentine corn production estimate to 36 million, while keeping his estimate for Brazil at 121 million.

The May SOYBEAN contract ended Tuesday at its lowest closing price since December.

Cordonnier also cut his estimate for Argentine soybean production by two million tonnes to 26 million due to ongoing drought, while his estimate for Brazil stayed steady at 151 million.

The USDA attache in Beijing has estimated Chinese soybean imports for 2023-24 to total 97.5 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s current estimate of 96 million. China’s crush for the marketing year is expected to be 95 million tonnes, an increase of one million from the previous estimate.

All three major U.S. WHEAT varieties went down with Chicago wheat falling the most.

In Colorado, the winter wheat crop is rated 36 per cent good to excellent, compared to 29 per cent in Oklahoma, 23 per cent in Texas and 19 per cent in Kansas.

Ukraine’s ag ministry also projected 16.6 million tonnes of wheat production, a 10 to 15 per cent decline despite reports of 40 per cent less seeded area.

In its first forecast for 2023, the European Union is projecting its soft wheat yield to be nearly six tonnes per hectare, up three per cent from last year and the five-year average.

India continued to reel from unseasonal rains and hail damage to its wheat growing areas.

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