North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola, grains fall again

Published: May 18, 2023

WINNIPEG — The ICE Futures canola market extended its downturn on Thursday despite mixed sentiment in comparable oils.

Chicago soyoil and European rapeseed were both up, while Malaysian palm oil was down. Crude oil lost more than US$1 per barrel due to recession fears and speculation the United States Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once again.

At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was down three-tenths of a U.S. cent compared to Wednesday’s close.

About 42,105 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 33,373 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 28,240 of the contracts traded. Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

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CORN prices dropped for a third straight day on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and fell to its lowest level since October 2021.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Weekly Export Sales report for the week ended May 11 showed 339,000 tonnes of net cancellations for old crop corn. China was largely responsible for the cancellations, while Japan and Colombia were net buyers. For new crop, the USDA reported 77,000 tonnes of sales.

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its monthly estimate for global corn output by nine million tonnes to 1.217 billion, 64 million higher than old crop output. The carryout for 2023-24 corn was raised by eight million tonnes to 272 million, compared to 266 million for old crop.

SOYBEANS were also weaker for the third straight day while also hitting its lowest price since December 2021.

The USDA’s Weekly Export Sales report showed 17,000 tonnes of old crop beans sold, down 73 per cent from last week. Meanwhile, new crop soybean sales were 663,000 tonnes, double the trade’s average pre-report estimate, which were led by China as well as unknown destinations. Old crop soymeal export sales totalled 202,000 tonnes, as well as 89,000 for new crop. For soyoil, 900 tonnes were sold.

The IGC raised its world new crop soybean production estimate by two million tonnes to 403 million, 39 million more than in the previous year. New crop ending stocks were raised four million tonnes to 64 million, 14 million more than in 2022-23.

WHEAT had another bad day on the CBOT with Minneapolis spring wheat suffering the greatest losses.

For old crop wheat, there were 42,000 tonnes of net cancellations during the week ended May 11 in the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales report, as well as 337,000 tonnes of sales for new crop.

Day two of the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour presented an average yield of 27.5 bushels per acre compared to 38.2 last year. Individual field results ranged from 9.7 to 51.8.

The IGC cut world wheat production by four million tonnes to 783 million for 2023-24, 20 million less than in the previous year. Carryout was cut six million tonnes to 271 million for new crop, 12 million less than for old crop.

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